Abcam Plc Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

ABCM
 Stock
  

USD 15.61  0.08  0.51%   

Abcam Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Abcam Plc historical stock prices and determine the direction of Abcam Plc ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Abcam Plc historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Abcam Plc naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Abcam Plc ADR systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Abcam Plc fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Abcam Plc to cross-verify your projections.
  
Asset Turnover is expected to hike to 0.33 this year. Weighted Average Shares is expected to hike to about 268 M this year. Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to hike to about 3.8 M this year.
Most investors in Abcam Plc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Abcam Plc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Abcam Plc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Abcam Plc ADR is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Abcam Plc 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Abcam Plc ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 15.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Abcam Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Abcam Plc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Abcam Plc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Abcam PlcAbcam Plc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Abcam Plc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Abcam Plc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Abcam Plc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.29 and 17.87, respectively. We have considered Abcam Plc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 15.61
15.58
Expected Value
17.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Abcam Plc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Abcam Plc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.1656
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0562
MADMean absolute deviation0.3686
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0253
SAESum of the absolute errors21.01
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Abcam Plc. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Abcam Plc ADR and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Abcam Plc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Abcam Plc ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Abcam Plc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Abcam Plc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
13.3215.6117.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.0519.6221.91
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
14.2715.2416.21
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
21.0022.6725.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Abcam Plc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Abcam Plc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Abcam Plc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Abcam Plc ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Abcam Plc

For every potential investor in Abcam, whether a beginner or expert, Abcam Plc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Abcam Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Abcam. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Abcam Plc's price trends.

Abcam Plc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Abcam Plc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Abcam Plc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Abcam Plc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
General ElectricMcDonalds CorpCoca-ColaHome DepotVerizon CommunicationsChevron CorpATT IncCisco SystemsAlcoa CorpAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone Inc
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Abcam Plc ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Abcam Plc's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Abcam Plc's current price.

Abcam Plc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Abcam Plc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Abcam Plc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Abcam Plc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Abcam Plc ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Abcam Plc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Abcam Plc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Abcam Plc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Abcam Plc stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Abcam Plc Investors Sentiment

The influence of Abcam Plc's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Abcam. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Abcam Plc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Abcam Plc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Abcam Plc options trading.

Pair Trading with Abcam Plc

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Abcam Plc position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Abcam Plc will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Abcam Plc could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Abcam Plc when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Abcam Plc - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Abcam Plc ADR to buy it.
The correlation of Abcam Plc is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Abcam Plc moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Abcam Plc ADR moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Abcam Plc can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Abcam Plc to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Abcam Plc ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Abcam Plc's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Abcam Stock analysis

When running Abcam Plc ADR price analysis, check to measure Abcam Plc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Abcam Plc is operating at the current time. Most of Abcam Plc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Abcam Plc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Abcam Plc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Abcam Plc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Abcam Plc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Abcam Plc. If investors know Abcam will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Abcam Plc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.58
Market Capitalization
3.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.23
Return On Assets
0.0326
Return On Equity
0.0069
The market value of Abcam Plc ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Abcam that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Abcam Plc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Abcam Plc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Abcam Plc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Abcam Plc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Abcam Plc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Abcam Plc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Abcam Plc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.