Absolute Software Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ABSTDelisted Stock | USD 11.49 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Absolute Software on the next trading day is expected to be 11.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.80. Absolute Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Absolute Software stock prices and determine the direction of Absolute Software's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Absolute Software's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state. Absolute |
Most investors in Absolute Software cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Absolute Software's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Absolute Software's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Absolute Software is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Absolute Software value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Absolute Software Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Absolute Software on the next trading day is expected to be 11.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Absolute Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Absolute Software's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Absolute Software Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Absolute Software | Absolute Software Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Absolute Software stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Absolute Software stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2714 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2426 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0243 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.7973 |
Predictive Modules for Absolute Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Absolute Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Absolute Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View Absolute Software Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Absolute Software Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Absolute Software stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Absolute Software shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Absolute Software stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Absolute Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9.0E-4 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.49 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) |
Absolute Software Risk Indicators
The analysis of Absolute Software's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Absolute Software's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting absolute stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.12 | |||
| Variance | 17.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6506 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.34) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Absolute Software
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Absolute Software position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Absolute Software will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Absolute Stock
| 0.69 | SAP | SAP SE ADR Financial Report 18th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.8 | UBER | Uber Technologies Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Absolute Stock
| 0.74 | DASTY | Dassault Systemes Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Absolute Software could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Absolute Software when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Absolute Software - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Absolute Software to buy it.
The correlation of Absolute Software is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Absolute Software moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Absolute Software moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Absolute Software can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Other Consideration for investing in Absolute Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Absolute Software check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Absolute Software's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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