Arch Capital Stock Forecast - Kurtosis
| ACGL Stock | USD 91.39 0.76 0.84% |
Arch Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Arch Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Arch Capital Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Arch Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Arch Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Arch Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Arch Capital fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arch Capital to cross-verify your projections. Arch |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Arch Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arch Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arch Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arch Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arch Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Arch Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arch Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arch. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Arch Capital cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Arch Capital's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Arch Capital's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
| Previous Kurtosis | Kurtosis | Trend |
| 0 | 0 |
| Check Arch Capital Volatility | Backtest Arch Capital | Information Ratio |
Arch Capital Trading Date Momentum
| On April 18 2024 Arch Capital Group was traded for 91.39 at the closing time. The top price for the day was 91.92 and the lowest listed price was 90.89 . The trading volume for the day was 1.4 M. The trading history from April 18, 2024 did not affect price variability. The overall trading delta against the current closing price is 0.08% . |
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Other Forecasting Options for Arch Capital
For every potential investor in Arch, whether a beginner or expert, Arch Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arch Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arch. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arch Capital's price trends.Arch Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arch Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arch Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arch Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arch Capital Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arch Capital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arch Capital's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arch Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arch Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arch Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arch Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arch Capital Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arch Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arch Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arch Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9371 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8416 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7083 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Arch Capital Investors Sentiment
The influence of Arch Capital's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Arch. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Arch Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arch. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arch can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arch Capital Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Arch Capital's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Arch Capital's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Arch Capital's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Arch Capital.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Arch Capital in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Arch Capital's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Arch Capital options trading.
Pair Trading with Arch Capital
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arch Capital position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arch Capital will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Arch Stock
| 0.76 | ESGR | Enstar Group Limited | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | FIHL | Fidelis Insurance Report 28th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | AIG | American International Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | EQH | Axa Equitable Holdings Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Arch Stock
| 0.55 | GSHD | Goosehead Insurance Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arch Capital could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arch Capital when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arch Capital - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arch Capital Group to buy it.
The correlation of Arch Capital is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arch Capital moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arch Capital Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arch Capital can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arch Capital to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Arch Capital Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arch Capital's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Complementary Tools for Arch Stock analysis
When running Arch Capital's price analysis, check to measure Arch Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arch Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Arch Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arch Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arch Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arch Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arch Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Capital. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.708 | Earnings Share 11.62 | Revenue Per Share 36.979 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.294 | Return On Assets 0.0419 |
The market value of Arch Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.