Absolute Capital Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ACMIX Fund  USD 10.63  0.06  0.56%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Absolute Capital Defender on the next trading day is expected to be 10.61 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.03  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.87. Absolute Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Absolute Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Absolute Capital Defender's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Absolute Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Absolute Capital to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Absolute Capital cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Absolute Capital's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Absolute Capital's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Absolute Capital - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Absolute Capital prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Absolute Capital price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Absolute Capital Defender.

Absolute Capital Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Absolute Capital Defender on the next trading day is expected to be 10.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.87.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Absolute Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Absolute Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Absolute Capital Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Absolute Capital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Absolute Capital's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Absolute Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.24 and 10.99, respectively. We have considered Absolute Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.63
10.61
Expected Value
10.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Absolute Capital mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Absolute Capital mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0077
MADMean absolute deviation0.0317
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.003
SAESum of the absolute errors1.8688
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Absolute Capital observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Absolute Capital Defender observations.

Predictive Modules for Absolute Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Absolute Capital Defender. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Absolute Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.2510.6311.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.2610.6411.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Absolute Capital. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Absolute Capital's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Absolute Capital's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Absolute Capital Defender.

Other Forecasting Options for Absolute Capital

For every potential investor in Absolute, whether a beginner or expert, Absolute Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Absolute Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Absolute. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Absolute Capital's price trends.

Absolute Capital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Absolute Capital mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Absolute Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Absolute Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Absolute Capital Defender Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Absolute Capital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Absolute Capital's current price.

Absolute Capital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Absolute Capital mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Absolute Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Absolute Capital mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Absolute Capital Defender entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Absolute Capital Risk Indicators

The analysis of Absolute Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Absolute Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting absolute mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Absolute Capital

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Absolute Capital position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Absolute Capital will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Absolute Mutual Fund

  1.0AAMIX Absolute Capital AssetPairCorr
  1.0AAMAX Absolute Capital AssetPairCorr
  1.0AAMCX Absolute Capital AssetPairCorr
  1.0ACMDX Absolute Capital DefenderPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Absolute Capital could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Absolute Capital when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Absolute Capital - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Absolute Capital Defender to buy it.
The correlation of Absolute Capital is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Absolute Capital moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Absolute Capital Defender moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Absolute Capital can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Absolute Capital to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Absolute Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Absolute Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Absolute Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.