Archer Daniels Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ADM Stock  USD 62.81  0.18  0.29%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Archer Daniels Midland on the next trading day is expected to be 65.91 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.86  and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.63. Archer Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Archer Daniels stock prices and determine the direction of Archer Daniels Midland's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Archer Daniels' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Archer Daniels' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Archer Daniels' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Archer Daniels fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Archer Daniels to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of the 29th of March 2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to 7.13. In addition to that, Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 11.14. As of the 29th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 552.7 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 5.2 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Archer Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Archer Daniels' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Archer Daniels' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Archer Daniels stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Archer Daniels' open interest, investors have to compare it to Archer Daniels' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Archer Daniels is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Archer. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Archer Daniels cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Archer Daniels' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Archer Daniels' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Archer Daniels is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Archer Daniels Midland value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Archer Daniels Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Archer Daniels Midland on the next trading day is expected to be 65.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86, mean absolute percentage error of 7.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Archer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Archer Daniels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Archer Daniels Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Archer DanielsArcher Daniels Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Archer Daniels Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Archer Daniels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Archer Daniels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 62.40 and 69.41, respectively. We have considered Archer Daniels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
62.81
65.91
Expected Value
69.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Archer Daniels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Archer Daniels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.9077
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.865
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0326
SAESum of the absolute errors115.629
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Archer Daniels Midland. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Archer Daniels. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Archer Daniels

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Archer-Daniels-Midland. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Archer Daniels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
59.3362.8166.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.7662.2465.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
61.5262.4363.33
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
87.9296.62107.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Archer Daniels. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Archer Daniels' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Archer Daniels' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Archer-Daniels-Midland.

Other Forecasting Options for Archer Daniels

For every potential investor in Archer, whether a beginner or expert, Archer Daniels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Archer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Archer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Archer Daniels' price trends.

Archer Daniels Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Archer Daniels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Archer Daniels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Archer Daniels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Archer-Daniels-Midland Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Archer Daniels' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Archer Daniels' current price.

Archer Daniels Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Archer Daniels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Archer Daniels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Archer Daniels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Archer Daniels Midland entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Archer Daniels Risk Indicators

The analysis of Archer Daniels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Archer Daniels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting archer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Archer Daniels Investors Sentiment

The influence of Archer Daniels' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Archer. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Archer Daniels' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Archer. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Archer can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Archer Daniels Midland. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Archer Daniels' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Archer Daniels' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Archer Daniels' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Archer Daniels.

Archer Daniels Implied Volatility

    
  20.52  
Archer Daniels' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Archer Daniels Midland stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Archer Daniels' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Archer Daniels stock will not fluctuate a lot when Archer Daniels' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Archer Daniels in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Archer Daniels' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Archer Daniels options trading.

Pair Trading with Archer Daniels

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Archer Daniels position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Archer Daniels will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Archer Stock

  0.76BG Bunge Limited Financial Report 1st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.62LW Lamb Weston Holdings Earnings Call This WeekPairCorr

Moving against Archer Stock

  0.68FARM Farmer Bros Financial Report 8th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.44BOF BranchOut Food CommonPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Archer Daniels could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Archer Daniels when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Archer Daniels - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Archer Daniels Midland to buy it.
The correlation of Archer Daniels is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Archer Daniels moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Archer-Daniels-Midland moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Archer Daniels can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Archer-Daniels-Midland is a strong investment it is important to analyze Archer Daniels' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Archer Daniels' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Archer Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Archer Daniels to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Archer-Daniels-Midland information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Archer Daniels' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.

Complementary Tools for Archer Stock analysis

When running Archer Daniels' price analysis, check to measure Archer Daniels' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Archer Daniels is operating at the current time. Most of Archer Daniels' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Archer Daniels' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Archer Daniels' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Archer Daniels to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Archer Daniels' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Archer Daniels. If investors know Archer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Archer Daniels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.42)
Dividend Share
1.8
Earnings Share
6.43
Revenue Per Share
173.632
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.11)
The market value of Archer-Daniels-Midland is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Archer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Archer Daniels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Archer Daniels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Archer Daniels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Archer Daniels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Archer Daniels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Archer Daniels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Archer Daniels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.