Advent Technologies Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

ADN Stock  USD 0.19  0.01  5.56%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Advent Technologies Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.01  and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.56. Advent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Advent Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Advent Technologies Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Advent Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Advent Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Advent Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Advent Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advent Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Advent Technologies' Receivables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.08, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 0.74. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 38.1 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (17.5 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Advent Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Advent Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Advent Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Advent Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Advent Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Advent Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Advent Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Advent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Advent Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Advent Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Advent Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Advent Technologies Holdings is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Advent Technologies 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Advent Technologies Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advent Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Advent Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Advent TechnologiesAdvent Technologies Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Advent Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Advent Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advent Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 7.84, respectively. We have considered Advent Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.19
0.18
Expected Value
7.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advent Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advent Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria104.0775
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 9.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0097
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0521
SAESum of the absolute errors0.56
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Advent Technologies. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Advent Technologies Holdings and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Advent Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advent Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advent Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.197.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.102.059.71
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.967.658.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advent Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advent Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advent Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Advent Technologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Advent Technologies

For every potential investor in Advent, whether a beginner or expert, Advent Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advent Technologies' price trends.

Advent Technologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advent Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advent Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advent Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Advent Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Advent Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Advent Technologies' current price.

Advent Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advent Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advent Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advent Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advent Technologies Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Advent Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Advent Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advent Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Advent Technologies

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Advent Technologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Advent Technologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Advent Stock

  0.5HLGN HeliogenPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Advent Technologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Advent Technologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Advent Technologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Advent Technologies Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Advent Technologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Advent Technologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Advent Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Advent Technologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Advent Technologies is a strong investment it is important to analyze Advent Technologies' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Advent Technologies' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Advent Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advent Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Advent Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advent Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for Advent Stock analysis

When running Advent Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Advent Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advent Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Advent Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advent Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advent Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advent Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Advent Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advent Technologies. If investors know Advent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advent Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.75)
Revenue Per Share
0.098
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.47)
Return On Assets
(0.33)
Return On Equity
(1.33)
The market value of Advent Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advent Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advent Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advent Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advent Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advent Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Advent Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advent Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.