ADTRAN Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for ADTRAN is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ADTRAN Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ADTRAN Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ADTRAN Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 7.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.56.

ADTRAN Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ADTRAN stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ADTRAN stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ADTRAN Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ADTRAN. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ADTRAN

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ADTRAN Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 5.01 8.07 11.13 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 6.41 9.47 12.53 Details

5 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 8.00 11.00 13.00 Details

Earnings Estimates (1) Low Projected EPS High -0.18 -0.18 -0.18 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ADTRAN. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ADTRAN's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ADTRAN's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ADTRAN Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for ADTRAN

For every potential investor in ADTRAN, whether a beginner or expert, ADTRAN's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ADTRAN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ADTRAN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ADTRAN's price trends.

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Correlation

ADTRAN Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ADTRAN's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ADTRAN's current price.

ADTRAN Market Strength Events

ADTRAN Risk Indicators

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in ADTRAN without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Pair Trading with ADTRAN

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ADTRAN position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ADTRAN will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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