ADTRAN Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

ADTN Stock  USD 5.32  0.12  2.31%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of ADTRAN Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.66 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.41  and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13. ADTRAN Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ADTRAN stock prices and determine the direction of ADTRAN Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ADTRAN's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although ADTRAN's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ADTRAN's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ADTRAN fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ADTRAN to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, ADTRAN's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 9.03, while Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 5.09. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 74.3 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (1.7 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 ADTRAN Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ADTRAN's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ADTRAN's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ADTRAN stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ADTRAN's open interest, investors have to compare it to ADTRAN's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ADTRAN is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ADTRAN. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in ADTRAN cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ADTRAN's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ADTRAN's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for ADTRAN Inc is based on a synthetically constructed ADTRANdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

ADTRAN 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of ADTRAN Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ADTRAN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ADTRAN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ADTRAN Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ADTRANADTRAN Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ADTRAN Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ADTRAN's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ADTRAN's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.46 and 8.86, respectively. We have considered ADTRAN's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.32
5.66
Expected Value
8.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ADTRAN stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ADTRAN stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria81.604
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.404
MADMean absolute deviation0.4078
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0692
SAESum of the absolute errors17.129
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. ADTRAN Inc 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for ADTRAN

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ADTRAN Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ADTRAN's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.055.258.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.086.289.48
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
9.1010.0011.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ADTRAN. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ADTRAN's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ADTRAN's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ADTRAN Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for ADTRAN

For every potential investor in ADTRAN, whether a beginner or expert, ADTRAN's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ADTRAN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ADTRAN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ADTRAN's price trends.

ADTRAN Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ADTRAN stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ADTRAN could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ADTRAN by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ADTRAN Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ADTRAN's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ADTRAN's current price.

ADTRAN Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ADTRAN stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ADTRAN shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ADTRAN stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ADTRAN Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ADTRAN Risk Indicators

The analysis of ADTRAN's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ADTRAN's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adtran stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with ADTRAN

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ADTRAN position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ADTRAN will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against ADTRAN Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to ADTRAN could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ADTRAN when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ADTRAN - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ADTRAN Inc to buy it.
The correlation of ADTRAN is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ADTRAN moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ADTRAN Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ADTRAN can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether ADTRAN Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of ADTRAN's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Adtran Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Adtran Inc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ADTRAN to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

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When running ADTRAN's price analysis, check to measure ADTRAN's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADTRAN is operating at the current time. Most of ADTRAN's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADTRAN's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADTRAN's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADTRAN to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ADTRAN's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADTRAN. If investors know ADTRAN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ADTRAN listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.60)
Dividend Share
0.18
Earnings Share
(3.41)
Revenue Per Share
14.654
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.37)
The market value of ADTRAN Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADTRAN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADTRAN's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADTRAN's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ADTRAN's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADTRAN's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ADTRAN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ADTRAN is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ADTRAN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.