Addus HomeCare Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ADUS Stock

USD 104.34 0.57 0.54%

Addus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Addus HomeCare historical stock prices and determine the direction of Addus HomeCare's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Addus HomeCare historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Addus HomeCare naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Addus HomeCare systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Addus HomeCare fundamentals over time.

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Addus HomeCare to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Addus Stock please use our How to Invest in Addus HomeCare guide.

Addus HomeCare PPandE Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Addus HomeCare reported PPandE Turnover of 47.96 in 2022. Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to gain to 60.33 in 2023, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 5.75 in 2023. . Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to gain to about 2.6 M in 2023, whereas Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 15.7 M in 2023.

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 Addus Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Addus HomeCare's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Addus HomeCare's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Addus HomeCare stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.

Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Addus HomeCare's open interest, investors have to compare it to Addus HomeCare's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Addus HomeCare is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Addus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Most investors in Addus HomeCare cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Addus HomeCare's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Addus HomeCare's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

A naive forecasting model for Addus HomeCare is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Addus HomeCare value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

More About Naive Prediction All Equity Analysis

Addus HomeCare Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Addus HomeCare on the next trading day is expected to be 107.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51, mean absolute percentage error of 3.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.81.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Addus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Addus HomeCare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Addus HomeCare Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Addus HomeCare

Addus HomeCare Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Addus HomeCare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Addus HomeCare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Addus HomeCare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 105.69 and 108.91, respectively. We have considered Addus HomeCare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

Market Value 104.34

105.69

Downside

107.30

Expected Value

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

108.91

Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Addus HomeCare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Addus HomeCare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	121.2258
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	1.5131
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0145
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	93.813

This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Addus HomeCare. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Addus HomeCare. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Addus HomeCare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Addus HomeCare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Addus HomeCare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Addus HomeCare in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
102.41	104.02	105.63

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
93.91	114.54	116.15

Details

Bollinger

Band Projection (param)

Lower	Middle Band	Upper
97.21	103.74	110.27

Details

8 Analysts

Consensus

Low	Target Price	High
120.00	124.43	130.00

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Addus HomeCare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Addus HomeCare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Addus HomeCare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Addus HomeCare.

Other Forecasting Options for Addus HomeCare

For every potential investor in Addus, whether a beginner or expert, Addus HomeCare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Addus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Addus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Addus HomeCare's price trends.

Addus HomeCare Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Addus HomeCare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Addus HomeCare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Addus HomeCare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Abbott LaboratoriesAccoladeIncAdicet BioAcadia HealthcareAethlon MedicalAesthetic Medical IntlAlign TechnologyAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

Addus HomeCare Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Addus HomeCare's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Addus HomeCare's current price.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

Addus HomeCare Risk Indicators

The analysis of Addus HomeCare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Addus HomeCare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Addus HomeCare stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	1.29
	Semi Deviation	1.61
	Standard Deviation	1.6
	Variance	2.56
	Downside Variance	2.73
	Semi Variance	2.61
	Expected Short fall	(1.32)

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Addus HomeCare Investors Sentiment

The influence of Addus HomeCare's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Addus. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Investor biases related to Addus HomeCare's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Addus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Addus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Addus HomeCare. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Addus HomeCare's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Addus HomeCare's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Addus HomeCare's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Addus HomeCare.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Addus HomeCare in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Addus HomeCare's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Addus HomeCare options trading.

Pair Trading with Addus HomeCare

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Addus HomeCare position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Addus HomeCare will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Addus HomeCare could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Addus HomeCare when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Addus HomeCare - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Addus HomeCare to buy it.

The correlation of Addus HomeCare is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Addus HomeCare moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Addus HomeCare moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Addus HomeCare can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.

Pair Correlation Correlation Matching

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Addus HomeCare to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Addus Stock please use our How to Invest in Addus HomeCare guide. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Addus HomeCare price analysis, check to measure Addus HomeCare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Addus HomeCare is operating at the current time. Most of Addus HomeCare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Addus HomeCare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Addus HomeCare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Addus HomeCare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Addus HomeCare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Addus HomeCare. If investors know Addus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Addus HomeCare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

0.11

Earnings Share

2.95

Revenue Per Share

59.966

Quarterly Revenue Growth

0.1

Return On Assets

0.0488

The market value of Addus HomeCare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Addus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Addus HomeCare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Addus HomeCare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Addus HomeCare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Addus HomeCare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Addus HomeCare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Addus HomeCare value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Addus HomeCare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average

Addus HomeCare Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 Addus Option Contracts

Addus HomeCare Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Addus HomeCare Stock Forecast Pattern

Addus HomeCare Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

Predictive Modules for Addus HomeCare

Other Forecasting Options for Addus HomeCare

Addus HomeCare Related Equities

Addus HomeCare Technical and Predictive Analytics

Addus HomeCare Risk Indicators

Addus HomeCare Investors Sentiment

Pair Trading with Addus HomeCare

Complementary Tools for analysis

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