Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ADVM Stock | USD 11.34 0.19 1.70% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adverum Biotechnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 11.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.98. Adverum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Adverum Biotechnologies stock prices and determine the direction of Adverum Biotechnologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Adverum Biotechnologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Adverum Biotechnologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies to cross-verify your projections. Adverum |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Adverum Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Adverum Biotechnologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Adverum Biotechnologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Adverum Biotechnologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Adverum Biotechnologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Adverum Biotechnologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Adverum Biotechnologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Adverum. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Adverum Biotechnologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Adverum Biotechnologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Adverum Biotechnologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Adverum Biotechnologies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Adverum Biotechnologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Adverum Biotechnologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adverum Biotechnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 11.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92, mean absolute percentage error of 3.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adverum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adverum Biotechnologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adverum Biotechnologies | Adverum Biotechnologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Adverum Biotechnologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adverum Biotechnologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adverum Biotechnologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.57 and 21.02, respectively. We have considered Adverum Biotechnologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adverum Biotechnologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adverum Biotechnologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2592 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9177 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0566 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.98 |
Predictive Modules for Adverum Biotechnologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adverum Biotechnologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adverum Biotechnologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Adverum Biotechnologies
For every potential investor in Adverum, whether a beginner or expert, Adverum Biotechnologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adverum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adverum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adverum Biotechnologies' price trends.View Adverum Biotechnologies Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adverum Biotechnologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Adverum Biotechnologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Adverum Biotechnologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adverum Biotechnologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adverum Biotechnologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adverum Biotechnologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adverum Biotechnologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adverum Biotechnologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Adverum Biotechnologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adverum Biotechnologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adverum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.98 | |||
| Variance | 80.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 40.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 33.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (8.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Adverum Biotechnologies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Adverum Biotechnologies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Adverum Biotechnologies options trading.
Pair Trading with Adverum Biotechnologies
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Adverum Biotechnologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Adverum Biotechnologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Adverum Biotechnologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Adverum Biotechnologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Adverum Biotechnologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Adverum Biotechnologies to buy it.
The correlation of Adverum Biotechnologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Adverum Biotechnologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Adverum Biotechnologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Adverum Biotechnologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Adverum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Adverum Biotechnologies guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Adverum Stock analysis
When running Adverum Biotechnologies' price analysis, check to measure Adverum Biotechnologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Adverum Biotechnologies is operating at the current time. Most of Adverum Biotechnologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Adverum Biotechnologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Adverum Biotechnologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Adverum Biotechnologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Adverum Biotechnologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adverum Biotechnologies. If investors know Adverum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adverum Biotechnologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (11.60) | Revenue Per Share 0.357 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.70) | Return On Assets (0.32) | Return On Equity (0.88) |
The market value of Adverum Biotechnologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adverum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adverum Biotechnologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adverum Biotechnologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adverum Biotechnologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adverum Biotechnologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adverum Biotechnologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adverum Biotechnologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adverum Biotechnologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.