Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

ADVM Stock  USD 14.66  0.51  3.60%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Adverum Biotechnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 14.66 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.00  and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.03. Adverum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Adverum Biotechnologies stock prices and determine the direction of Adverum Biotechnologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Adverum Biotechnologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Adverum Biotechnologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Adverum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Adverum Biotechnologies guide.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 2.98, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 2.14. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 9.6 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to drop to about (146 M).
Most investors in Adverum Biotechnologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Adverum Biotechnologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Adverum Biotechnologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Adverum Biotechnologies simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Adverum Biotechnologies are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Adverum Biotechnologies prices get older.

Adverum Biotechnologies Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Adverum Biotechnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 14.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 3.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adverum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adverum Biotechnologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Adverum BiotechnologiesAdverum Biotechnologies Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Adverum Biotechnologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Adverum Biotechnologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adverum Biotechnologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.16 and 24.16, respectively. We have considered Adverum Biotechnologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.66
14.66
Expected Value
24.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adverum Biotechnologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adverum Biotechnologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.2556
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1169
MADMean absolute deviation1.0005
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0595
SAESum of the absolute errors61.03
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Adverum Biotechnologies forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Adverum Biotechnologies observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Adverum Biotechnologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adverum Biotechnologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adverum Biotechnologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.9520.4529.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.469.1618.66
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.9314.5915.25
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.874.254.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Adverum Biotechnologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Adverum Biotechnologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Adverum Biotechnologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Adverum Biotechnologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Adverum Biotechnologies

For every potential investor in Adverum, whether a beginner or expert, Adverum Biotechnologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adverum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adverum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adverum Biotechnologies' price trends.

Adverum Biotechnologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adverum Biotechnologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adverum Biotechnologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Adverum Biotechnologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Adverum Biotechnologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Adverum Biotechnologies' current price.

Adverum Biotechnologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adverum Biotechnologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adverum Biotechnologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adverum Biotechnologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adverum Biotechnologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Adverum Biotechnologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adverum Biotechnologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adverum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Adverum Biotechnologies

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Adverum Biotechnologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Adverum Biotechnologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Adverum Stock

  0.74EQ Equillium Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Adverum Stock

  0.75VALN Valneva SE ADR Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.75CALT Calliditas Therapeutics Financial Report 21st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.66MEIP MEI Pharma Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.56MGTX MeiraGTx Holdings PLC Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.56PFE Pfizer Inc Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Adverum Biotechnologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Adverum Biotechnologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Adverum Biotechnologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Adverum Biotechnologies to buy it.
The correlation of Adverum Biotechnologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Adverum Biotechnologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Adverum Biotechnologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Adverum Biotechnologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Adverum Biotechnologies is a strong investment it is important to analyze Adverum Biotechnologies' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Adverum Biotechnologies' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Adverum Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Adverum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Adverum Biotechnologies guide.
You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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Is Adverum Biotechnologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adverum Biotechnologies. If investors know Adverum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adverum Biotechnologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(11.60)
Revenue Per Share
0.357
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.70)
Return On Assets
(0.32)
Return On Equity
(0.88)
The market value of Adverum Biotechnologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adverum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adverum Biotechnologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adverum Biotechnologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adverum Biotechnologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adverum Biotechnologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adverum Biotechnologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adverum Biotechnologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adverum Biotechnologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.