Agios Pharm Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| AGIO Stock | USD 30.21 0.68 2.30% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Agios Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 29.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.79. Agios Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Agios Pharm stock prices and determine the direction of Agios Pharm's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Agios Pharm's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Agios Pharm's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Agios Pharm's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agios Pharm fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agios Pharm to cross-verify your projections. Agios |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Agios Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Agios Pharm's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Agios Pharm's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Agios Pharm stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Agios Pharm's open interest, investors have to compare it to Agios Pharm's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Agios Pharm is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Agios. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Agios Pharm cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Agios Pharm's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Agios Pharm's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Agios Pharm is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Agios Pharm 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Agios Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 29.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96, mean absolute percentage error of 1.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agios Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agios Pharm's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agios Pharm Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Agios Pharm | Agios Pharm Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Agios Pharm Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agios Pharm's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agios Pharm's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.72 and 32.97, respectively. We have considered Agios Pharm's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agios Pharm stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agios Pharm stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2338 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2876 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9619 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0324 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.7875 |
Predictive Modules for Agios Pharm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agios Pharm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agios Pharm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Agios Pharm
For every potential investor in Agios, whether a beginner or expert, Agios Pharm's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agios Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agios. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agios Pharm's price trends.View Agios Pharm Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agios Pharm Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agios Pharm's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agios Pharm's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agios Pharm Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agios Pharm stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agios Pharm shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agios Pharm stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agios Pharm entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 38777.58 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4892 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.36 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.68 |
Agios Pharm Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agios Pharm's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agios Pharm's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agios stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.05 | |||
| Variance | 9.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Agios Pharm Investors Sentiment
The influence of Agios Pharm's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Agios. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Agios Pharm's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Agios. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Agios can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Agios Pharm. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Agios Pharm's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Agios Pharm's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Agios Pharm's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Agios Pharm.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Agios Pharm in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Agios Pharm's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Agios Pharm options trading.
Pair Trading with Agios Pharm
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agios Pharm position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agios Pharm will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Agios Stock
| 0.58 | EVO | Evotec SE ADR Earnings Call Tomorrow | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | PCRX | Pacira Pharmaceuticals Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agios Pharm could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agios Pharm when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agios Pharm - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agios Pharm to buy it.
The correlation of Agios Pharm is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agios Pharm moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agios Pharm moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agios Pharm can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agios Pharm to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Agios Stock, please use our How to Invest in Agios Pharm guide.You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Complementary Tools for Agios Stock analysis
When running Agios Pharm's price analysis, check to measure Agios Pharm's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agios Pharm is operating at the current time. Most of Agios Pharm's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agios Pharm's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agios Pharm's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agios Pharm to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Agios Pharm's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agios Pharm. If investors know Agios will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agios Pharm listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (6.33) | Revenue Per Share 0.482 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.648 | Return On Assets (0.22) | Return On Equity (0.37) |
The market value of Agios Pharm is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agios that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agios Pharm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agios Pharm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agios Pharm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agios Pharm's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agios Pharm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agios Pharm is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agios Pharm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.