Agilysys Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AGYS Stock | USD 86.09 1.19 1.40% |
Agilysys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Agilysys stock prices and determine the direction of Agilysys's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Agilysys historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Agilysys naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Agilysys systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agilysys fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilysys to cross-verify your projections. Agilysys |
Open Interest Against 2023-12-15 Agilysys Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Agilysys' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Agilysys' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Agilysys stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Agilysys' open interest, investors have to compare it to Agilysys' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Agilysys is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Agilysys. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Agilysys cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Agilysys' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Agilysys' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Agilysys simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Agilysys are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Agilysys prices get older. Agilysys Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Agilysys on the next trading day is expected to be 86.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.42, mean absolute percentage error of 6.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agilysys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agilysys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agilysys Stock Forecast Pattern
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Agilysys Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agilysys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agilysys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 82.34 and 89.84, respectively. We have considered Agilysys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agilysys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agilysys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9694 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2638 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4179 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 86.49 |
Predictive Modules for Agilysys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agilysys. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agilysys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Agilysys in the context of predictive analytics.
Other Forecasting Options for Agilysys
For every potential investor in Agilysys, whether a beginner or expert, Agilysys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agilysys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agilysys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agilysys' price trends.Agilysys Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agilysys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agilysys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agilysys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agilysys Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agilysys' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agilysys' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agilysys Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agilysys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agilysys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agilysys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agilysys entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6419.17 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6503 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 85.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 85.62 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.3 |
Agilysys Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agilysys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agilysys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Agilysys stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Variance | 13.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Be your own money manager
Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Agilysys without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.Did you try this?
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Pair Trading with Agilysys
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agilysys position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agilysys will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Agilysys Stock
| - | 0.86 | ZI | ZoomInfo Technologies | Fiscal Quarter End 31st of December 2023 | PairCorr | |
| - | 0.85 | EB | Eventbrite Class A | Fiscal Quarter End 31st of December 2023 | PairCorr | |
| - | 0.72 | WK | Workiva | Fiscal Quarter End 31st of December 2023 | PairCorr | |
| - | 0.69 | VS | Versus Systems | Fiscal Quarter End 31st of December 2023 | PairCorr | |
| - | 0.53 | ZM | Zoom Video Communications | Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agilysys could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agilysys when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agilysys - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agilysys to buy it.
The correlation of Agilysys is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agilysys moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agilysys moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agilysys can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilysys to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Agilysys Stock please use our How to Invest in Agilysys guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for Agilysys Stock analysis
When running Agilysys' price analysis, check to measure Agilysys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agilysys is operating at the current time. Most of Agilysys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agilysys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agilysys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agilysys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Agilysys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agilysys. If investors know Agilysys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agilysys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.333 | Earnings Share 0.47 | Revenue Per Share 8.745 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.228 | Return On Assets 0.0333 |
The market value of Agilysys is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agilysys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agilysys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agilysys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agilysys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agilysys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agilysys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agilysys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agilysys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.