Aesthetic Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AIH
 Stock
  

USD 2.35  0.10  4.44%   

Aesthetic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aesthetic Medical historical stock prices and determine the direction of Aesthetic Medical International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Aesthetic Medical historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Aesthetic Medical naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Aesthetic Medical International systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aesthetic Medical fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aesthetic Medical to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.83. The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to decrease to about 67.1 M. The current Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is estimated to decrease to about (1.8 M).
Most investors in Aesthetic Medical cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aesthetic Medical's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aesthetic Medical's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Aesthetic Medical is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aesthetic Medical International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aesthetic Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aesthetic Medical International on the next trading day is expected to be 2.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.023014, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aesthetic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aesthetic Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aesthetic Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aesthetic MedicalAesthetic Medical Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aesthetic Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aesthetic Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aesthetic Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0235 and 8.77, respectively. We have considered Aesthetic Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 2.35
0.0235
Downside
2.67
Expected Value
8.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aesthetic Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aesthetic Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3389
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1114
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.055
SAESum of the absolute errors6.7981
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aesthetic Medical International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aesthetic Medical. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aesthetic Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aesthetic Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aesthetic Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aesthetic Medical in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.122.378.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.214.1310.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1.892.242.58
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0010.0010.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aesthetic Medical. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aesthetic Medical's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aesthetic Medical's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aesthetic Medical.

Other Forecasting Options for Aesthetic Medical

For every potential investor in Aesthetic, whether a beginner or expert, Aesthetic Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aesthetic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aesthetic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aesthetic Medical's price trends.

Aesthetic Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aesthetic Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aesthetic Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aesthetic Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Starbucks CorpAlcoa CorpPfizer IncCaterpillarBoeing CompanyChevron CorpJP Morgan ChaseProcter GambleHP IncAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone Inc
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aesthetic Medical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aesthetic Medical's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aesthetic Medical's current price.

Aesthetic Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aesthetic Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aesthetic Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Aesthetic Medical stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Aesthetic Medical Investors Sentiment

The influence of Aesthetic Medical's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Aesthetic. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Aesthetic Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Aesthetic. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aesthetic can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aesthetic Medical International. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Aesthetic Medical's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Aesthetic Medical's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Aesthetic Medical's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Aesthetic Medical.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aesthetic Medical in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aesthetic Medical's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aesthetic Medical options trading.

Pair Trading with Aesthetic Medical

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aesthetic Medical position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aesthetic Medical will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Aesthetic Medical

0.61AMNAmn Healthcare Services Upward RallyPairCorr

Moving against Aesthetic Medical

0.69IONMAssure Holdings Corp Earnings Call  Next WeekPairCorr
0.69ACHVAchieve Life Sciences Earnings Call  This WeekPairCorr
0.68ACSTAcasti Pharma Earnings Call  This WeekPairCorr
0.65ABVCAbvc Biopharma Earnings Call  This WeekPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aesthetic Medical could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aesthetic Medical when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aesthetic Medical - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aesthetic Medical International to buy it.
The correlation of Aesthetic Medical is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aesthetic Medical moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aesthetic Medical moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aesthetic Medical can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aesthetic Medical to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Aesthetic Medical information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aesthetic Medical's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

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When running Aesthetic Medical price analysis, check to measure Aesthetic Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aesthetic Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Aesthetic Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aesthetic Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aesthetic Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aesthetic Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aesthetic Medical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aesthetic Medical. If investors know Aesthetic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aesthetic Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
12.19
Market Capitalization
72.2 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.19
Return On Assets
-0.2
Return On Equity
-4.92
The market value of Aesthetic Medical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aesthetic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aesthetic Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aesthetic Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aesthetic Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aesthetic Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aesthetic Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aesthetic Medical value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aesthetic Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.