AKA Brands Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AKA Stock | USD 12.08 0.28 2.37% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AKA Brands Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 12.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.88. AKA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AKA Brands stock prices and determine the direction of AKA Brands Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AKA Brands' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although AKA Brands' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AKA Brands' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AKA Brands fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AKA Brands to cross-verify your projections. AKA |
Most investors in AKA Brands cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AKA Brands' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AKA Brands' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for AKA Brands - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When AKA Brands prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in AKA Brands price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of AKA Brands Holding. AKA Brands Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AKA Brands Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 12.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AKA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AKA Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AKA Brands Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AKA Brands | AKA Brands Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AKA Brands Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AKA Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AKA Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.27 and 17.95, respectively. We have considered AKA Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AKA Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AKA Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0073 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4313 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0402 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.88 |
Predictive Modules for AKA Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AKA Brands Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AKA Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for AKA Brands
For every potential investor in AKA, whether a beginner or expert, AKA Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AKA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AKA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AKA Brands' price trends.AKA Brands Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AKA Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AKA Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AKA Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AKA Brands Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AKA Brands' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AKA Brands' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AKA Brands Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AKA Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AKA Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AKA Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AKA Brands Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AKA Brands Risk Indicators
The analysis of AKA Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AKA Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aka stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.98 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.75 | |||
| Variance | 33.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with AKA Brands
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AKA Brands position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AKA Brands will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against AKA Stock
| 0.58 | DLTH | Duluth Holdings Potential Growth | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AKA Brands could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AKA Brands when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AKA Brands - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AKA Brands Holding to buy it.
The correlation of AKA Brands is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AKA Brands moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AKA Brands Holding moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AKA Brands can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AKA Brands to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Complementary Tools for AKA Stock analysis
When running AKA Brands' price analysis, check to measure AKA Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AKA Brands is operating at the current time. Most of AKA Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AKA Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AKA Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AKA Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals |
Is AKA Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AKA Brands. If investors know AKA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AKA Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Earnings Share (9.24) | Revenue Per Share 51.019 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of AKA Brands Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AKA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AKA Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AKA Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AKA Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AKA Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AKA Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AKA Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AKA Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.