Albireo Pharma Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALBO Stock  USD 43.95  0.05  0.11%   
Albireo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Albireo Pharma historical stock prices and determine the direction of Albireo Pharma's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Albireo Pharma historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Albireo Pharma naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Albireo Pharma systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Albireo Pharma fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Albireo Pharma to cross-verify your projections.
  
Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 6.79 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 67.56. . Weighted Average Shares is expected to rise to about 18.7 M this year. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 18.7 M this year.

Open Interest Agains t 2023-02-17 Albireo Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Albireo Pharma's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Albireo Pharma's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Albireo Pharma stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Albireo Pharma's open interest, investors have to compare it to Albireo Pharma's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Albireo Pharma is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Albireo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Albireo Pharma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Albireo Pharma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Albireo Pharma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Albireo Pharma is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Albireo Pharma value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Albireo Pharma Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Albireo Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 37.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.17, mean absolute percentage error of 9.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 132.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Albireo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Albireo Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Albireo Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Albireo PharmaAlbireo Pharma Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Albireo Pharma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Albireo Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Albireo Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.03 and 49.98, respectively. We have considered Albireo Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 43.95
37.50
Expected Value
49.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Albireo Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Albireo Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.3503
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.1708
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0821
SAESum of the absolute errors132.4164
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Albireo Pharma. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Albireo Pharma. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Albireo Pharma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Albireo Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Albireo Pharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Albireo Pharma in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.4543.9356.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
41.4153.8966.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.6127.6837.85
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
67.0075.8084.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Albireo Pharma. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Albireo Pharma's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Albireo Pharma's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Albireo Pharma.

Other Forecasting Options for Albireo Pharma

For every potential investor in Albireo, whether a beginner or expert, Albireo Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Albireo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Albireo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Albireo Pharma's price trends.

Albireo Pharma Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Albireo Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Albireo Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Albireo Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Agilent TechnologiesAcorda TherapeuticsAcasti PharmaAdaptimmune TherapeuticsAstraZeneca PLC ADRCocrystal PharmaCrispr TherapeuticsAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Albireo Pharma Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Albireo Pharma's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Albireo Pharma's current price.

Albireo Pharma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Albireo Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Albireo Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Albireo Pharma stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Albireo Pharma Investors Sentiment

The influence of Albireo Pharma's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Albireo. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Albireo Pharma's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Albireo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Albireo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Albireo Pharma. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Albireo Pharma's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Albireo Pharma's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Albireo Pharma's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Albireo Pharma.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Albireo Pharma in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Albireo Pharma's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Albireo Pharma options trading.

Pair Trading with Albireo Pharma

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Albireo Pharma position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Albireo Pharma will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Albireo Pharma

+0.85ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Sell-off TrendPairCorr

Moving against Albireo Pharma

-0.58RPRXRoyalty PharmaPlc Sell-off TrendPairCorr
-0.57PHATPhathom Pharmaceuticals TrendingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Albireo Pharma could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Albireo Pharma when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Albireo Pharma - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Albireo Pharma to buy it.
The correlation of Albireo Pharma is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Albireo Pharma moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Albireo Pharma moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Albireo Pharma can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Albireo Pharma to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Albireo Pharma information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Albireo Pharma's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

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Is Albireo Pharma's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Albireo Pharma. If investors know Albireo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Albireo Pharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
912.2 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.683
Return On Assets
(0.25) 
Return On Equity
(0.93) 
The market value of Albireo Pharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Albireo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Albireo Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Albireo Pharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Albireo Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Albireo Pharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Albireo Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Albireo Pharma value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Albireo Pharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.