Alico Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ALCO Stock | USD 26.65 0.35 1.30% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alico Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 26.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.62. Alico Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alico stock prices and determine the direction of Alico Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alico's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Alico's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alico's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alico fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alico to cross-verify your projections. Alico |
Most investors in Alico cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alico's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alico's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Alico - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Alico prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Alico price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Alico Inc. Alico Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alico Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 26.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alico Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alico's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alico Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alico | Alico Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alico Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alico's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alico's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.55 and 28.64, respectively. We have considered Alico's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alico stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alico stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0455 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4342 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.619 |
Predictive Modules for Alico
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alico Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alico's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Alico
For every potential investor in Alico, whether a beginner or expert, Alico's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alico Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alico. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alico's price trends.Alico Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alico stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alico could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alico by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alico Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alico's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alico's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alico Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alico stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alico shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alico stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alico Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alico Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alico's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alico's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alico stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Variance | 4.1 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Alico
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alico position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alico will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Alico Stock
| 0.44 | FREE | Whole Earth Brands Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alico could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alico when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alico - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alico Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Alico is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alico moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alico Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alico can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alico to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alico Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alico's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Alico Stock analysis
When running Alico's price analysis, check to measure Alico's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alico is operating at the current time. Most of Alico's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alico's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alico's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alico to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Portfolio Dashboard Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences |
Is Alico's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alico. If investors know Alico will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alico listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.352 | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 6.29 | Revenue Per Share 5.684 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.321 |
The market value of Alico Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alico that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alico's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alico's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alico's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alico's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alico's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alico is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alico's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.