Alfa Laval Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALFVF Stock  USD 37.00  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alfa Laval AB on the next trading day is expected to be 36.20 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.42  and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.46. Alfa Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alfa Laval stock prices and determine the direction of Alfa Laval AB's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alfa Laval's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alfa Laval to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Alfa Laval cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alfa Laval's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alfa Laval's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Alfa Laval is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alfa Laval AB value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alfa Laval Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alfa Laval AB on the next trading day is expected to be 36.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alfa Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alfa Laval's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alfa Laval Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alfa LavalAlfa Laval Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alfa Laval Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alfa Laval's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alfa Laval's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.08 and 37.32, respectively. We have considered Alfa Laval's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.00
36.20
Expected Value
37.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alfa Laval pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alfa Laval pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.8059
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4174
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0118
SAESum of the absolute errors25.4609
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alfa Laval AB. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alfa Laval. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alfa Laval

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alfa Laval AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alfa Laval's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.8837.0038.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.5734.6940.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
37.0037.0037.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alfa Laval. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alfa Laval's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alfa Laval's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alfa Laval AB.

Other Forecasting Options for Alfa Laval

For every potential investor in Alfa, whether a beginner or expert, Alfa Laval's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alfa Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alfa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alfa Laval's price trends.

Alfa Laval Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alfa Laval pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alfa Laval could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alfa Laval by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alfa Laval AB Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alfa Laval's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alfa Laval's current price.

Alfa Laval Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alfa Laval pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alfa Laval shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alfa Laval pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Alfa Laval AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alfa Laval Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alfa Laval's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alfa Laval's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alfa pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Alfa Laval

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alfa Laval position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alfa Laval will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Alfa Pink Sheet

  0.88GE General Electric Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.87SIEGY Siemens AG ADRPairCorr
  0.9ETN Eaton PLC Financial Report 7th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.82SMAWF Siemens AG ClassPairCorr
  0.88SBGSY Schneider ElectricPairCorr

Moving against Alfa Pink Sheet

  0.87GPOVF Grupo Carso SABPairCorr
  0.66ORGN Origin Materials Financial Report 8th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.64GRNTF IPath Global CarbonPairCorr
  0.42UIS Unisys Financial Report 7th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alfa Laval could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alfa Laval when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alfa Laval - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alfa Laval AB to buy it.
The correlation of Alfa Laval is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alfa Laval moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alfa Laval AB moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alfa Laval can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alfa Laval to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Alfa Laval's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alfa Laval is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alfa Laval's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.