Allegro MicrosystemsInc Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ALGM Stock  USD 27.18  0.18  0.67%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allegro MicrosystemsInc on the next trading day is expected to be 27.03 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.66  and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.19. Allegro Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Allegro MicrosystemsInc stock prices and determine the direction of Allegro MicrosystemsInc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Allegro MicrosystemsInc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Allegro MicrosystemsInc's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Allegro MicrosystemsInc's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Allegro MicrosystemsInc fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegro MicrosystemsInc to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Allegro Stock, please use our How to Invest in Allegro MicrosystemsInc guide.
  
At this time, Allegro MicrosystemsInc's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 18th of April 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 14.08, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 5.34. . As of the 18th of April 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 226.2 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 209.5 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Allegro Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Allegro MicrosystemsInc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Allegro MicrosystemsInc's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Allegro MicrosystemsInc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Allegro MicrosystemsInc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Allegro MicrosystemsInc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Allegro MicrosystemsInc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Allegro. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Allegro MicrosystemsInc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Allegro MicrosystemsInc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Allegro MicrosystemsInc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Allegro MicrosystemsInc works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Allegro MicrosystemsInc Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allegro MicrosystemsInc on the next trading day is expected to be 27.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allegro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allegro MicrosystemsInc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allegro MicrosystemsInc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Allegro MicrosystemsIncAllegro MicrosystemsInc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Allegro MicrosystemsInc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allegro MicrosystemsInc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allegro MicrosystemsInc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.09 and 29.96, respectively. We have considered Allegro MicrosystemsInc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.18
27.03
Expected Value
29.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegro MicrosystemsInc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegro MicrosystemsInc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1227
MADMean absolute deviation0.6643
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.023
SAESum of the absolute errors39.1924
When Allegro MicrosystemsInc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Allegro MicrosystemsInc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Allegro MicrosystemsInc observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Allegro MicrosystemsInc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegro MicrosystemsInc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allegro MicrosystemsInc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.2527.1830.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.7023.6329.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.2126.8927.57
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.0250.5756.13
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allegro MicrosystemsInc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allegro MicrosystemsInc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allegro MicrosystemsInc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Allegro MicrosystemsInc.

Other Forecasting Options for Allegro MicrosystemsInc

For every potential investor in Allegro, whether a beginner or expert, Allegro MicrosystemsInc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegro MicrosystemsInc's price trends.

Allegro MicrosystemsInc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allegro MicrosystemsInc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allegro MicrosystemsInc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allegro MicrosystemsInc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allegro MicrosystemsInc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allegro MicrosystemsInc's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allegro MicrosystemsInc's current price.

Allegro MicrosystemsInc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allegro MicrosystemsInc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allegro MicrosystemsInc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allegro MicrosystemsInc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allegro MicrosystemsInc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allegro MicrosystemsInc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allegro MicrosystemsInc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allegro MicrosystemsInc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allegro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Allegro MicrosystemsInc

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Allegro MicrosystemsInc position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Allegro MicrosystemsInc will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Allegro Stock

  0.85ICHR Ichor Holdings Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Allegro Stock

  0.54VLD Velo3D Inc Financial Report 6th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Allegro MicrosystemsInc could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Allegro MicrosystemsInc when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Allegro MicrosystemsInc - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Allegro MicrosystemsInc to buy it.
The correlation of Allegro MicrosystemsInc is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Allegro MicrosystemsInc moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Allegro MicrosystemsInc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Allegro MicrosystemsInc can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Allegro MicrosystemsInc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Allegro MicrosystemsInc's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Allegro MicrosystemsInc's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Allegro Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegro MicrosystemsInc to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Allegro Stock, please use our How to Invest in Allegro MicrosystemsInc guide.
Note that the Allegro MicrosystemsInc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Allegro MicrosystemsInc's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

Complementary Tools for Allegro Stock analysis

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Is Allegro MicrosystemsInc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allegro MicrosystemsInc. If investors know Allegro will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allegro MicrosystemsInc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.48)
Earnings Share
1.14
Revenue Per Share
5.611
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.025
Return On Assets
0.1118
The market value of Allegro MicrosystemsInc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allegro that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allegro MicrosystemsInc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allegro MicrosystemsInc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allegro MicrosystemsInc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allegro MicrosystemsInc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allegro MicrosystemsInc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allegro MicrosystemsInc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allegro MicrosystemsInc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.