Align Technology Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ALGN Stock  USD 327.92  0.02  0.01%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Align Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 320.00 with a mean absolute deviation of  6.92  and the sum of the absolute errors of 428.97. Align Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Align Technology stock prices and determine the direction of Align Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Align Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Align Technology's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Align Technology's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Align Technology fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Align Technology to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Align Stock, please use our How to Invest in Align Technology guide.
  
At this time, Align Technology's Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 29th of March 2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.90, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 3.66. . As of the 29th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 74.1 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 314 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Align Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Align Technology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Align Technology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Align Technology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Align Technology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Align Technology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Align Technology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Align. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Align Technology cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Align Technology's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Align Technology's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Align Technology polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Align Technology as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Align Technology Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Align Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 320.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.92, mean absolute percentage error of 64.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 428.97.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Align Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Align Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Align Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Align TechnologyAlign Technology Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Align Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Align Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Align Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 317.88 and 322.12, respectively. We have considered Align Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
327.92
317.88
Downside
320.00
Expected Value
322.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Align Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Align Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.1169
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.9188
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0237
SAESum of the absolute errors428.9652
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Align Technology historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Align Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Align Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Align Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
325.80327.92330.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
308.18310.30360.71
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
296.95313.84330.74
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
246.05270.38300.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Align Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Align Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Align Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Align Technology.

Other Forecasting Options for Align Technology

For every potential investor in Align, whether a beginner or expert, Align Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Align Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Align. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Align Technology's price trends.

Align Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Align Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Align Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Align Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Align Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Align Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Align Technology's current price.

Align Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Align Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Align Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Align Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Align Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Align Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Align Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Align Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting align stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Align Technology Investors Sentiment

The influence of Align Technology's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Align. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Align Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Align. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Align can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Align Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Align Technology's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Align Technology's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Align Technology's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Align Technology.

Align Technology Implied Volatility

    
  33.58  
Align Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Align Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Align Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Align Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Align Technology's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Align Technology in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Align Technology's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Align Technology options trading.

Pair Trading with Align Technology

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Align Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Align Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Align Stock

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  0.68COO Cooper Companies Financial Report 6th of June 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Align Stock

  0.79MCRB Seres Therapeutics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.78PHG Koninklijke Philips Financial Report 22nd of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.71MBIO Mustang Bio Report 3rd of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.68TFX Teleflex Incorporated Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.68PIIIW P3 Health PartnersPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Align Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Align Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Align Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Align Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Align Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Align Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Align Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Align Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Align Technology offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Align Technology's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Align Technology Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Align Technology Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Align Technology to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Align Stock, please use our How to Invest in Align Technology guide.
Note that the Align Technology information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Align Technology's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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Is Align Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Align Technology. If investors know Align will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Align Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.06
Earnings Share
5.81
Revenue Per Share
50.536
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.061
Return On Assets
0.0682
The market value of Align Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Align that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Align Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Align Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Align Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Align Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Align Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Align Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Align Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.