Applied Materials Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| AMAT Stock | USD 189.46 0.31 0.16% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Applied Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 198.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 342.61. Applied Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Applied Materials stock prices and determine the direction of Applied Materials's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Applied Materials' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Materials to cross-verify your projections. Applied |
Most investors in Applied Materials cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Applied Materials' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Applied Materials' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Applied Materials is based on an artificially constructed time series of Applied Materials daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Applied Materials 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Applied Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 198.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.46, mean absolute percentage error of 64.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 342.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Materials | Applied Materials Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Applied Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 195.90 and 200.58, respectively. We have considered Applied Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.5725 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.2609 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.4644 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0328 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 342.6138 |
Predictive Modules for Applied Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Applied Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Applied Materials
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Materials' price trends.Applied Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Materials Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Applied Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Applied Materials' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0257 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.06) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 189.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 189.37 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 4.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.31) |
Applied Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Applied Materials
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Applied Materials position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Applied Materials will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Applied Stock
| 0.58 | BA | Boeing Earnings Call Tomorrow | PairCorr |
| 0.53 | CSCO | Cisco Systems Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | TLK | Telkom Indonesia Tbk Financial Report 26th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | MCD | McDonalds Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Applied Materials could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Applied Materials when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Applied Materials - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Applied Materials to buy it.
The correlation of Applied Materials is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Applied Materials moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Applied Materials moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Applied Materials can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Materials to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Materials guide.Note that the Applied Materials information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Applied Materials' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Applied Stock analysis
When running Applied Materials' price analysis, check to measure Applied Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Applied Materials' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Materials. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Applied Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Applied Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Applied Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Applied Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Applied Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Applied Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.