Applied Materials Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

AMAT Stock  USD 205.11  2.89  1.39%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applied Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 206.05 with a mean absolute deviation of  3.62  and the sum of the absolute errors of 213.52. Applied Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Applied Materials stock prices and determine the direction of Applied Materials's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Applied Materials' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Applied Materials' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Applied Materials' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Applied Materials fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Materials to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Materials guide.
  
At this time, Applied Materials' Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 8.67 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 3.91 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 1.1 B in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 7.9 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Applied Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Applied Materials' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Applied Materials' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Applied Materials stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Applied Materials' open interest, investors have to compare it to Applied Materials' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Applied Materials is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Applied. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Applied Materials cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Applied Materials' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Applied Materials' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Applied Materials - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Applied Materials prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Applied Materials price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Applied Materials.

Applied Materials Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applied Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 206.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.62, mean absolute percentage error of 21.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 213.52.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Applied Materials Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Applied MaterialsApplied Materials Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Applied Materials Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Applied Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 203.59 and 208.50, respectively. We have considered Applied Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
205.11
203.59
Downside
206.05
Expected Value
208.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4274
MADMean absolute deviation3.619
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0196
SAESum of the absolute errors213.5214
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Applied Materials observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Applied Materials observations.

Predictive Modules for Applied Materials

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Applied Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
202.14204.59207.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
151.05153.50225.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
204.23206.59208.96
Details
36 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
135.64149.06165.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Applied Materials. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Applied Materials' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Applied Materials' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Applied Materials.

Other Forecasting Options for Applied Materials

For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Materials' price trends.

Applied Materials Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Applied Materials Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Applied Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Applied Materials' current price.

Applied Materials Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Applied Materials Risk Indicators

The analysis of Applied Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Applied Materials

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Applied Materials position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Applied Materials will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Applied Stock

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Moving against Applied Stock

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  0.72WOLF Wolfspeed Financial Report 24th of April 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Applied Materials could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Applied Materials when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Applied Materials - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Applied Materials to buy it.
The correlation of Applied Materials is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Applied Materials moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Applied Materials moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Applied Materials can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Applied Materials is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Applied Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Applied Materials Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Applied Materials Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Materials to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Materials guide.
Note that the Applied Materials information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Applied Materials' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

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Is Applied Materials' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Materials. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Applied Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.193
Dividend Share
1.28
Earnings Share
8.51
Revenue Per Share
31.662
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
The market value of Applied Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Applied Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Applied Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Applied Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Applied Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.