American Mutual Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

AMFCX -  USA Fund  

USD 50.33  0.19  0.38%

American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Mutual historical stock prices and determine the direction of American Mutual's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Mutual historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Mutual to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in American Mutual cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Mutual's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Mutual's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for American Mutual is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Mutual value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

American Mutual Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Mutual on the next trading day is expected to be 49.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.88. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Mutual's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Mutual Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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American Mutual Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Mutual's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Mutual's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.46 and 50.50, respectively. We have considered American Mutual's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
50.33
18th of September 2021
49.98
Expected Value
50.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Mutual mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Mutual mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.1841
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1783
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0036
SAESum of the absolute errors10.875
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Mutual. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict American Mutual. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for American Mutual

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Mutual. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Mutual's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Mutual in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
49.8250.3450.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
49.7150.2350.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
49.8150.5051.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Mutual. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Mutual's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Mutual's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Mutual.

Other Forecasting Options for American Mutual

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Mutual's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Mutual's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Mutual mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Mutual could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Mutual by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

American Mutual Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Mutual's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Mutual's current price.

American Mutual Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Mutual's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Mutual's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting American Mutual stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in American Mutual without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with American Mutual

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Mutual position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Mutual will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

American Mutual Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Mutual and Columbia Fds Srs. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Mutual to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Mutual information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Mutual's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

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When running American Mutual price analysis, check to measure American Mutual's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Mutual is operating at the current time. Most of American Mutual's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Mutual's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Mutual's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Mutual to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Mutual's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Mutual value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Mutual's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.