Ampio Pharm Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMPEDelisted Stock | USD 0.25 0.10 28.57% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ampio Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 0.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.22. Ampio Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ampio Pharm stock prices and determine the direction of Ampio Pharm's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ampio Pharm's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ampio Pharm to cross-verify your projections. Ampio |
Most investors in Ampio Pharm cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ampio Pharm's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ampio Pharm's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Ampio Pharm is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ampio Pharm value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Ampio Pharm Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ampio Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 0.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ampio Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ampio Pharm's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ampio Pharm Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ampio Pharm | Ampio Pharm Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ampio Pharm Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ampio Pharm's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ampio Pharm's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 12.54, respectively. We have considered Ampio Pharm's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ampio Pharm pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ampio Pharm pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5908 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1348 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.222 |
Predictive Modules for Ampio Pharm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ampio Pharm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ampio Pharm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ampio Pharm
For every potential investor in Ampio, whether a beginner or expert, Ampio Pharm's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ampio Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ampio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ampio Pharm's price trends.View Ampio Pharm Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ampio Pharm Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ampio Pharm's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ampio Pharm's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ampio Pharm Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ampio Pharm pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ampio Pharm shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ampio Pharm pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Ampio Pharm entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ampio Pharm Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ampio Pharm's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ampio Pharm's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ampio pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 11.8 | |||
| Variance | 139.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ampio Pharm in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ampio Pharm's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ampio Pharm options trading.
Pair Trading with Ampio Pharm
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ampio Pharm position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ampio Pharm will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Ampio Pink Sheet
| 0.62 | KA | Kineta Inc Financial Report 9th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | DMAC | DiaMedica Therapeutics Financial Report 20th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Ampio Pink Sheet
| 0.83 | YS | YS Biopharma | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | DOMH | Dominari Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | VERU | Veru Inc Financial Report 9th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | VCEL | Vericel Corp Ord Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ampio Pharm could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ampio Pharm when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ampio Pharm - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ampio Pharm to buy it.
The correlation of Ampio Pharm is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ampio Pharm moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ampio Pharm moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ampio Pharm can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ampio Pharm to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Other Consideration for investing in Ampio Pink Sheet
If you are still planning to invest in Ampio Pharm check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Ampio Pharm's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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