Amprius Technologies Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AMPX Stock | USD 1.76 0.03 1.73% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amprius Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.28. Amprius Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amprius Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Amprius Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amprius Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Amprius Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Amprius Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Amprius Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amprius Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Amprius |
Most investors in Amprius Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amprius Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amprius Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Amprius Technologies works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Amprius Technologies Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amprius Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amprius Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amprius Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amprius Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amprius Technologies | Amprius Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Amprius Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amprius Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amprius Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.91, respectively. We have considered Amprius Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amprius Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amprius Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0157 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0854 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0425 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.2809 |
Predictive Modules for Amprius Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amprius Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amprius Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Amprius Technologies
For every potential investor in Amprius, whether a beginner or expert, Amprius Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amprius Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amprius. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amprius Technologies' price trends.Amprius Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amprius Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amprius Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amprius Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amprius Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amprius Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amprius Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amprius Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amprius Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amprius Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amprius Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amprius Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Amprius Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amprius Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amprius Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amprius stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.26 | |||
| Variance | 18.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Amprius Technologies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Amprius Technologies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Amprius Technologies options trading.
Pair Trading with Amprius Technologies
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amprius Technologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amprius Technologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amprius Technologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amprius Technologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amprius Technologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amprius Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Amprius Technologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amprius Technologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amprius Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amprius Technologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amprius Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Amprius Stock please use our How to Invest in Amprius Technologies guide.You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Amprius Stock analysis
When running Amprius Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Amprius Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amprius Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Amprius Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amprius Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amprius Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amprius Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amprius Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amprius Technologies. If investors know Amprius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amprius Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.43) | Revenue Per Share 0.105 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 3.98 | Return On Assets (0.25) | Return On Equity (0.55) |
The market value of Amprius Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amprius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amprius Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amprius Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amprius Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amprius Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amprius Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amprius Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amprius Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.