Amprius Technologies Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

AMPX Stock  USD 6.48  0.40  6.58%   
Amprius Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amprius Technologies historical stock prices and determine the direction of Amprius Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Amprius Technologies historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amprius Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Amprius Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amprius Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amprius Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Amprius Technologies is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Amprius Technologies Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Amprius Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 6.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amprius Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amprius Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amprius Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Amprius TechnologiesAmprius Technologies Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Amprius Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amprius Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amprius Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 12.73, respectively. We have considered Amprius Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 6.48
6.28
Expected Value
12.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amprius Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amprius Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.4305
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0924
MADMean absolute deviation0.3663
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0473
SAESum of the absolute errors21.61
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Amprius Technologies price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Amprius Technologies. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Amprius Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amprius Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amprius Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amprius Technologies in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.316.1212.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.316.1312.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.146.346.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amprius Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amprius Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amprius Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amprius Technologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Amprius Technologies

For every potential investor in Amprius, whether a beginner or expert, Amprius Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amprius Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amprius. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amprius Technologies' price trends.

Amprius Technologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amprius Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amprius Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amprius Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Sensata TechnologiesIdeal PowerEnergy FocuEnergousAmprius TechnologiesMonitronics InternationalAsia Pacific WireAtkore InternationalOrion Energy SystemsAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOne
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amprius Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amprius Technologies' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amprius Technologies' current price.

Amprius Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amprius Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amprius Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amprius Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amprius Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amprius Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amprius Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amprius Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Amprius Technologies stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Amprius Technologies without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Amprius Technologies

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amprius Technologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amprius Technologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Amprius Technologies

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amprius Technologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amprius Technologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amprius Technologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amprius Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Amprius Technologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amprius Technologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amprius Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amprius Technologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amprius Technologies to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Amprius Technologies price analysis, check to measure Amprius Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amprius Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Amprius Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amprius Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amprius Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amprius Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amprius Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amprius Technologies. If investors know Amprius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amprius Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
549 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.473
The market value of Amprius Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amprius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amprius Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amprius Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amprius Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amprius Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amprius Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amprius Technologies value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amprius Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.