Amplify Energy Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

AMPY Stock  USD 6.53  0.25  3.98%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amplify Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.53 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.14  and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.12. Amplify Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amplify Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Amplify Energy Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amplify Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Amplify Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Amplify Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Amplify Energy fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amplify Energy to cross-verify your projections.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to rise to 23.67 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 4.09 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 69.9 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 23.2 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Amplify Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amplify Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Amplify Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Amplify Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amplify Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Amplify Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amplify Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amplify. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Amplify Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amplify Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amplify Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Amplify Energy - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Amplify Energy prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Amplify Energy price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Amplify Energy Corp.

Amplify Energy Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amplify Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amplify Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amplify Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amplify Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Amplify EnergyAmplify Energy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Amplify Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amplify Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amplify Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.88 and 10.17, respectively. We have considered Amplify Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.53
6.53
Expected Value
10.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amplify Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amplify Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0239
MADMean absolute deviation0.1354
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0228
SAESum of the absolute errors8.1221
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Amplify Energy observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Amplify Energy Corp observations.

Predictive Modules for Amplify Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amplify Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amplify Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.876.5110.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.907.5411.18
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.0111.0012.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amplify Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amplify Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amplify Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Amplify Energy Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Amplify Energy

For every potential investor in Amplify, whether a beginner or expert, Amplify Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amplify Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amplify. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amplify Energy's price trends.

Amplify Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amplify Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amplify Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amplify Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amplify Energy Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amplify Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amplify Energy's current price.

Amplify Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amplify Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amplify Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amplify Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amplify Energy Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amplify Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amplify Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amplify Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amplify stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Amplify Energy

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amplify Energy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amplify Energy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Amplify Stock

  0.43AETUF ARC ResourcesPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amplify Energy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amplify Energy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amplify Energy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amplify Energy Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Amplify Energy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amplify Energy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amplify Energy Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amplify Energy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Amplify Energy Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amplify Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amplify Energy Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amplify Energy Corp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amplify Energy to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

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When running Amplify Energy's price analysis, check to measure Amplify Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amplify Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Amplify Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amplify Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amplify Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amplify Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amplify Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amplify Energy. If investors know Amplify will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amplify Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.453
Earnings Share
9.63
Revenue Per Share
7.436
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.253
Return On Assets
0.0818
The market value of Amplify Energy Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amplify that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amplify Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amplify Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amplify Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amplify Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amplify Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amplify Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amplify Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.