AMTD IDEA Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| AMTD Stock | USD 1.74 0.03 1.75% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of AMTD IDEA Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.35. AMTD Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AMTD IDEA stock prices and determine the direction of AMTD IDEA Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AMTD IDEA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although AMTD IDEA's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AMTD IDEA's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AMTD IDEA fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMTD IDEA to cross-verify your projections. AMTD |
Most investors in AMTD IDEA cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AMTD IDEA's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AMTD IDEA's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through AMTD IDEA price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. AMTD IDEA Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of AMTD IDEA Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMTD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMTD IDEA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AMTD IDEA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMTD IDEA | AMTD IDEA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AMTD IDEA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AMTD IDEA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AMTD IDEA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 4.42, respectively. We have considered AMTD IDEA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMTD IDEA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMTD IDEA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0564 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.038 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0216 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.3538 |
Predictive Modules for AMTD IDEA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMTD IDEA Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMTD IDEA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for AMTD IDEA
For every potential investor in AMTD, whether a beginner or expert, AMTD IDEA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AMTD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AMTD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AMTD IDEA's price trends.View AMTD IDEA Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMTD IDEA Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AMTD IDEA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AMTD IDEA's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AMTD IDEA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AMTD IDEA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AMTD IDEA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AMTD IDEA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AMTD IDEA Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3931.91 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1875 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.03 |
AMTD IDEA Risk Indicators
The analysis of AMTD IDEA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AMTD IDEA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amtd stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Variance | 6.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with AMTD IDEA
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AMTD IDEA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AMTD IDEA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to AMTD IDEA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AMTD IDEA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AMTD IDEA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AMTD IDEA Group to buy it.
The correlation of AMTD IDEA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AMTD IDEA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AMTD IDEA Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AMTD IDEA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMTD IDEA to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Complementary Tools for AMTD Stock analysis
When running AMTD IDEA's price analysis, check to measure AMTD IDEA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AMTD IDEA is operating at the current time. Most of AMTD IDEA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AMTD IDEA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AMTD IDEA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AMTD IDEA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AMTD IDEA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMTD IDEA. If investors know AMTD will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AMTD IDEA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | Earnings Share 2.97 | Revenue Per Share 27.353 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.192 | Return On Assets 0.1119 |
The market value of AMTD IDEA Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMTD that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AMTD IDEA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AMTD IDEA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AMTD IDEA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AMTD IDEA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AMTD IDEA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AMTD IDEA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AMTD IDEA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.