Aberdeen Total Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AOD Fund | USD 7.96 0.09 1.14% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aberdeen Total Dynamic on the next trading day is expected to be 7.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.67. Aberdeen Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aberdeen Total stock prices and determine the direction of Aberdeen Total Dynamic's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aberdeen Total's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aberdeen Total to cross-verify your projections. Aberdeen |
Most investors in Aberdeen Total cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aberdeen Total's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aberdeen Total's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Aberdeen Total simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Aberdeen Total Dynamic are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Aberdeen Total Dynamic prices get older. Aberdeen Total Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aberdeen Total Dynamic on the next trading day is expected to be 7.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aberdeen Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aberdeen Total's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aberdeen Total Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aberdeen Total | Aberdeen Total Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aberdeen Total Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aberdeen Total's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aberdeen Total's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.25 and 8.67, respectively. We have considered Aberdeen Total's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aberdeen Total fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aberdeen Total fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.5461 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0018 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0445 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0056 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.67 |
Predictive Modules for Aberdeen Total
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aberdeen Total Dynamic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aberdeen Total's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Aberdeen Total
For every potential investor in Aberdeen, whether a beginner or expert, Aberdeen Total's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aberdeen Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aberdeen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aberdeen Total's price trends.Aberdeen Total Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aberdeen Total fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aberdeen Total could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aberdeen Total by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aberdeen Total Dynamic Technical and Predictive Analytics
The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aberdeen Total's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aberdeen Total's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aberdeen Total Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aberdeen Total fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aberdeen Total shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aberdeen Total fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aberdeen Total Dynamic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aberdeen Total Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aberdeen Total's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aberdeen Total's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aberdeen fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5441 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.634 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7003 | |||
| Variance | 0.4904 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.517 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.402 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Aberdeen Total
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aberdeen Total position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aberdeen Total will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Aberdeen Fund
| 0.85 | FAFGX | American Funds | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | FFAFX | American Funds | PairCorr |
| 0.9 | FWMMX | American Funds Washington | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | FWWMX | American Funds Washington | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | FKIQX | Franklin Income | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aberdeen Total could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aberdeen Total when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aberdeen Total - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aberdeen Total Dynamic to buy it.
The correlation of Aberdeen Total is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aberdeen Total moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aberdeen Total Dynamic moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aberdeen Total can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aberdeen Total to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.