Short Duration Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

APOGX Fund  USD 10.18  0.01  0.1%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Short Duration Inflation on the next trading day is expected to be 10.16 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.02  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.04. Short Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Short Duration stock prices and determine the direction of Short Duration Inflation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Short Duration's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Short Duration to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Short Duration cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Short Duration's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Short Duration's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Short Duration is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Short Duration Inflation value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Short Duration Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Short Duration Inflation on the next trading day is expected to be 10.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Short Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Short Duration's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Short Duration Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Short DurationShort Duration Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Short Duration Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Short Duration's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Short Duration's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.98 and 10.34, respectively. We have considered Short Duration's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.18
10.16
Expected Value
10.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Short Duration mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Short Duration mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.2522
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0167
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0017
SAESum of the absolute errors1.0375
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Short Duration Inflation. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Short Duration. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Short Duration

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Short Duration Inflation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Short Duration's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.0010.1810.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.9910.1710.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Short Duration. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Short Duration's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Short Duration's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Short Duration Inflation.

Other Forecasting Options for Short Duration

For every potential investor in Short, whether a beginner or expert, Short Duration's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Short Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Short. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Short Duration's price trends.

Short Duration Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Short Duration mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Short Duration could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Short Duration by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Short Duration Inflation Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Short Duration's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Short Duration's current price.

Short Duration Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Short Duration mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Short Duration shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Short Duration mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Short Duration Inflation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Short Duration Risk Indicators

The analysis of Short Duration's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Short Duration's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting short mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Short Duration

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Short Duration position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Short Duration will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Short Mutual Fund

  0.76USG USCF Gold Strategy Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.69AMDVX Mid Cap ValuePairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Short Duration could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Short Duration when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Short Duration - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Short Duration Inflation to buy it.
The correlation of Short Duration is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Short Duration moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Short Duration Inflation moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Short Duration can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Short Duration to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Short Duration Inflation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Short Duration's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

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When running Short Duration's price analysis, check to measure Short Duration's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Short Duration is operating at the current time. Most of Short Duration's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Short Duration's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Short Duration's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Short Duration to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Short Duration's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Short Duration is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Short Duration's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.