# APEXCM SMALLMID Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

APSGX Fund | USD 14.19 0.24 0.00% |

APEXCM Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast APEXCM SMALLMID historical stock prices and determine the direction of APEXCM SMALLMID CAP's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of APEXCM SMALLMID historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.

Check out Trending Equities. APEXCM |

Most investors in APEXCM SMALLMID cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the APEXCM SMALLMID's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets APEXCM SMALLMID's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

A naive forecasting model for APEXCM SMALLMID is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of APEXCM SMALLMID CAP value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. ## APEXCM SMALLMID Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of APEXCM SMALLMID CAP on the next trading day is expected to be 13.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.036537, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict APEXCM Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that APEXCM SMALLMID's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

## APEXCM SMALLMID Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest APEXCM SMALLMID | APEXCM SMALLMID Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |

## APEXCM SMALLMID Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting APEXCM SMALLMID's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. APEXCM SMALLMID's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.61 and 15.27, respectively. We have considered APEXCM SMALLMID's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

## Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of APEXCM SMALLMID mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent APEXCM SMALLMID mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8011 |

Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |

MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1422 |

MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |

SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.6746 |

## Predictive Modules for APEXCM SMALLMID

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as APEXCM SMALLMID CAP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of APEXCM SMALLMID's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of APEXCM SMALLMID in the context of predictive analytics.

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as APEXCM SMALLMID. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against APEXCM SMALLMID's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, APEXCM SMALLMID's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in APEXCM SMALLMID CAP.

## Other Forecasting Options for APEXCM SMALLMID

For every potential investor in APEXCM, whether a beginner or expert, APEXCM SMALLMID's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. APEXCM Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in APEXCM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying APEXCM SMALLMID's price trends.## APEXCM SMALLMID Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with APEXCM SMALLMID mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of APEXCM SMALLMID could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing APEXCM SMALLMID by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Risk & Return | Correlation |

## APEXCM SMALLMID CAP Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of APEXCM SMALLMID's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of APEXCM SMALLMID's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||

Math Operators | ||

Math Transform | ||

Momentum Indicators | ||

Overlap Studies | ||

Pattern Recognition | ||

Price Transform | ||

Statistic Functions | ||

Volatility Indicators | ||

Volume Indicators |

## APEXCM SMALLMID Risk Indicators

The analysis of APEXCM SMALLMID's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in APEXCM SMALLMID's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting APEXCM SMALLMID stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||

Semi Deviation | 1.31 | |||

Standard Deviation | 1.33 | |||

Variance | 1.76 | |||

Downside Variance | 1.93 | |||

Semi Variance | 1.72 | |||

Expected Short fall | (1.18) |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

## Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in APEXCM SMALLMID without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.## Did you try this?

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## Pair Trading with APEXCM SMALLMID

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if APEXCM SMALLMID position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in APEXCM SMALLMID will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.### Moving together with APEXCM SMALLMID

+ | 0.92 | VEXMX | VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET | PairCorr | |||

+ | 0.92 | VSEMX | VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET | PairCorr | |||

+ | 0.86 | VEMPX | VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET | PairCorr | |||

+ | 0.92 | VIEIX | VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET | PairCorr | |||

+ | 0.87 | VEXAX | VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET | PairCorr |

The ability to find closely correlated positions to APEXCM SMALLMID could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace APEXCM SMALLMID when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back APEXCM SMALLMID - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling APEXCM SMALLMID CAP to buy it.

The correlation of APEXCM SMALLMID is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as APEXCM SMALLMID moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if APEXCM SMALLMID CAP moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for APEXCM SMALLMID can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of APEXCM SMALLMID to cross-verify your projections. Note that the APEXCM SMALLMID CAP information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other APEXCM SMALLMID's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

## Complementary Tools for APEXCM Mutual Fund analysis

When running APEXCM SMALLMID CAP price analysis, check to measure APEXCM SMALLMID's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy APEXCM SMALLMID is operating at the current time. Most of APEXCM SMALLMID's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of APEXCM SMALLMID's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move APEXCM SMALLMID's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of APEXCM SMALLMID to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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