Aptose Biosciences Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

APTO Stock  USD 1.30  0.06  4.41%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Aptose Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 1.35 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.06  and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.57. Aptose Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aptose Biosciences stock prices and determine the direction of Aptose Biosciences's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aptose Biosciences' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Aptose Biosciences' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aptose Biosciences' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aptose Biosciences fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptose Biosciences to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Aptose Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aptose Biosciences guide.
  
At this time, Aptose Biosciences' Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 15th of April 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.84, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop (139.3 T). . As of the 15th of April 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 6.4 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (35.8 M).
Most investors in Aptose Biosciences cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aptose Biosciences' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aptose Biosciences' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Aptose Biosciences is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Aptose Biosciences 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Aptose Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 1.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.57.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aptose Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aptose Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aptose Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aptose BiosciencesAptose Biosciences Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aptose Biosciences Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aptose Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aptose Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.60, respectively. We have considered Aptose Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.30
1.35
Expected Value
5.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aptose Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aptose Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.6955
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.029
MADMean absolute deviation0.0627
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.038
SAESum of the absolute errors3.5725
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Aptose Biosciences. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Aptose Biosciences and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Aptose Biosciences

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aptose Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aptose Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.061.285.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.175.9010.15
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.9419.7121.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aptose Biosciences. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aptose Biosciences' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aptose Biosciences' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Aptose Biosciences.

Other Forecasting Options for Aptose Biosciences

For every potential investor in Aptose, whether a beginner or expert, Aptose Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aptose Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aptose. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aptose Biosciences' price trends.

View Aptose Biosciences Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aptose Biosciences Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aptose Biosciences' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aptose Biosciences' current price.

Aptose Biosciences Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aptose Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aptose Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aptose Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aptose Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aptose Biosciences Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aptose Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aptose Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aptose stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aptose Biosciences in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aptose Biosciences' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aptose Biosciences options trading.

Pair Trading with Aptose Biosciences

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aptose Biosciences position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aptose Biosciences will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Aptose Stock

  0.75VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Financial Report 6th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Aptose Stock

  0.88RZLT Rezolute TrendingPairCorr
  0.84CELC Celcuity LLC Financial Report 20th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.81NVO Novo Nordisk AS Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.74INDP Indaptus Therapeutics Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.61BMY Bristol Myers Squibb Financial Report 25th of April 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aptose Biosciences could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aptose Biosciences when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aptose Biosciences - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aptose Biosciences to buy it.
The correlation of Aptose Biosciences is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aptose Biosciences moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aptose Biosciences moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aptose Biosciences can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Aptose Biosciences offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Aptose Biosciences' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Aptose Biosciences Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Aptose Biosciences Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptose Biosciences to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Aptose Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aptose Biosciences guide.
You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

Complementary Tools for Aptose Stock analysis

When running Aptose Biosciences' price analysis, check to measure Aptose Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aptose Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Aptose Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aptose Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aptose Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aptose Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Is Aptose Biosciences' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aptose Biosciences. If investors know Aptose will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aptose Biosciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(7.58)
Return On Assets
(1.02)
Return On Equity
(2.94)
The market value of Aptose Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aptose that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aptose Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aptose Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aptose Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aptose Biosciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aptose Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aptose Biosciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aptose Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.