Arkema OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARKAF -  USA Stock  

USD 126.40  7.60  5.67%

Arkema OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Arkema historical stock prices and determine the direction of Arkema's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Arkema historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arkema to cross-verify your projections.

Arkema O TC Stock Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Arkema cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Arkema's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Arkema's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Arkema is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Arkema value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Arkema Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arkema on the next trading day is expected to be 131.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 1.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.63. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arkema OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arkema's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Arkema OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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Arkema Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Arkema's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arkema's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 130.58 and 132.37, respectively. We have considered Arkema's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
126.40
21st of October 2021
130.58
Downside
131.48
Expected Value
132.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arkema otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arkema otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.9707
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3811
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.003
SAESum of the absolute errors23.6305
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Arkema. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Arkema. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Arkema

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arkema. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arkema's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Arkema in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
125.50126.40127.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
124.83125.73126.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
124.02126.64129.26
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arkema. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arkema's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arkema's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Arkema.

Other Forecasting Options for Arkema

For every potential investor in Arkema, whether a beginner or expert, Arkema's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arkema OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arkema. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arkema's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arkema otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arkema could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arkema by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Arkema Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arkema's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arkema's current price.

Arkema Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arkema otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arkema shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arkema otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arkema entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Arkema Risk Indicators

The analysis of Arkema's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arkema's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Arkema stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Arkema without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Arkema

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arkema position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arkema will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Arkema Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arkema and Sherwin-Williams. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arkema to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Arkema information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arkema's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Arkema OTC Stock analysis

When running Arkema price analysis, check to measure Arkema's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arkema is operating at the current time. Most of Arkema's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arkema's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arkema's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arkema to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Arkema is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arkema that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arkema's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arkema's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arkema's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arkema underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arkema's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Arkema value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arkema's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.