ARK Fintech Etf Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ARKF Etf | USD 27.72 0.47 1.67% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ARK Fintech Innovation on the next trading day is expected to be 27.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.37. ARK Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ARK Fintech stock prices and determine the direction of ARK Fintech Innovation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ARK Fintech's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARK Fintech to cross-verify your projections. ARK |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 ARK Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ARK Fintech's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ARK Fintech's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ARK Fintech stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ARK Fintech's open interest, investors have to compare it to ARK Fintech's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ARK Fintech is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ARK. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in ARK Fintech cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ARK Fintech's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ARK Fintech's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for ARK Fintech is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. ARK Fintech Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ARK Fintech Innovation on the next trading day is expected to be 27.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ARK Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ARK Fintech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ARK Fintech Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ARK Fintech | ARK Fintech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ARK Fintech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ARK Fintech's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ARK Fintech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.69 and 29.75, respectively. We have considered ARK Fintech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ARK Fintech etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ARK Fintech etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2844 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0332 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4895 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.37 |
Predictive Modules for ARK Fintech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARK Fintech Innovation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ARK Fintech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for ARK Fintech
For every potential investor in ARK, whether a beginner or expert, ARK Fintech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ARK Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ARK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ARK Fintech's price trends.ARK Fintech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ARK Fintech etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ARK Fintech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ARK Fintech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ARK Fintech Innovation Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ARK Fintech's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ARK Fintech's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ARK Fintech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ARK Fintech etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ARK Fintech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ARK Fintech etf market strength indicators, traders can identify ARK Fintech Innovation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 12248.27 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.62) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 27.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 27.89 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.50) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.47) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 70.78 |
ARK Fintech Risk Indicators
The analysis of ARK Fintech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ARK Fintech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ark etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with ARK Fintech
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ARK Fintech position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ARK Fintech will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with ARK Etf
| 0.8 | VGT | Vanguard Information | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | XLK | Technology Select Sector | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | IYW | iShares Technology ETF | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF Potential Growth | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ARK Fintech could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ARK Fintech when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ARK Fintech - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ARK Fintech Innovation to buy it.
The correlation of ARK Fintech is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ARK Fintech moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ARK Fintech Innovation moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ARK Fintech can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARK Fintech to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
The market value of ARK Fintech Innovation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ARK that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ARK Fintech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ARK Fintech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ARK Fintech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ARK Fintech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ARK Fintech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ARK Fintech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ARK Fintech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.