Array TechnologiesInc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARRY Stock  USD 14.91  0.19  1.26%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Array TechnologiesInc on the next trading day is expected to be 16.63 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.37  and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.70. Array Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Array TechnologiesInc stock prices and determine the direction of Array TechnologiesInc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Array TechnologiesInc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Array TechnologiesInc's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Array TechnologiesInc's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Array TechnologiesInc fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Array TechnologiesInc to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Array Stock please use our How to Invest in Array TechnologiesInc guide.
  
At this time, Array TechnologiesInc's Fixed Asset Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 5.48 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.17 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 144.4 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to rise to about (37.3 M) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Array Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Array TechnologiesInc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Array TechnologiesInc's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Array TechnologiesInc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Array TechnologiesInc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Array TechnologiesInc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Array TechnologiesInc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Array. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Array TechnologiesInc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Array TechnologiesInc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Array TechnologiesInc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Array TechnologiesInc is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Array TechnologiesInc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Array TechnologiesInc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Array TechnologiesInc on the next trading day is expected to be 16.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Array Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Array TechnologiesInc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Array TechnologiesInc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Array TechnologiesIncArray TechnologiesInc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Array TechnologiesInc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Array TechnologiesInc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Array TechnologiesInc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.07 and 20.20, respectively. We have considered Array TechnologiesInc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.91
16.63
Expected Value
20.20
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Array TechnologiesInc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Array TechnologiesInc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.68
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3721
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0269
SAESum of the absolute errors22.6986
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Array TechnologiesInc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Array TechnologiesInc. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Array TechnologiesInc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Array TechnologiesInc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Array TechnologiesInc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.1314.7118.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.6918.2721.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.8414.6515.46
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
26.9729.6432.90
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Array TechnologiesInc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Array TechnologiesInc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Array TechnologiesInc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Array TechnologiesInc.

Other Forecasting Options for Array TechnologiesInc

For every potential investor in Array, whether a beginner or expert, Array TechnologiesInc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Array Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Array. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Array TechnologiesInc's price trends.

Array TechnologiesInc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Array TechnologiesInc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Array TechnologiesInc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Array TechnologiesInc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Array TechnologiesInc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Array TechnologiesInc's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Array TechnologiesInc's current price.

Array TechnologiesInc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Array TechnologiesInc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Array TechnologiesInc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Array TechnologiesInc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Array TechnologiesInc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Array TechnologiesInc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Array TechnologiesInc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Array TechnologiesInc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting array stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Array TechnologiesInc Investors Sentiment

The influence of Array TechnologiesInc's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Array. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Array TechnologiesInc's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Array. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Array can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Array TechnologiesInc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Array TechnologiesInc's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Array TechnologiesInc's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Array TechnologiesInc's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Array TechnologiesInc.

Array TechnologiesInc Implied Volatility

    
  62.22  
Array TechnologiesInc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Array TechnologiesInc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Array TechnologiesInc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Array TechnologiesInc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Array TechnologiesInc's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Array TechnologiesInc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Array TechnologiesInc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Array TechnologiesInc options trading.

Pair Trading with Array TechnologiesInc

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Array TechnologiesInc position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Array TechnologiesInc will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Array Stock

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  0.44FIP FTAI InfrastructurePairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Array TechnologiesInc could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Array TechnologiesInc when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Array TechnologiesInc - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Array TechnologiesInc to buy it.
The correlation of Array TechnologiesInc is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Array TechnologiesInc moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Array TechnologiesInc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Array TechnologiesInc can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Array TechnologiesInc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Array TechnologiesInc's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Array Technologiesinc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Array Technologiesinc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Array TechnologiesInc to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Array Stock please use our How to Invest in Array TechnologiesInc guide.
You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

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Is Array TechnologiesInc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Array TechnologiesInc. If investors know Array will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Array TechnologiesInc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.65)
Earnings Share
0.56
Revenue Per Share
10.445
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.15)
Return On Assets
0.0795
The market value of Array TechnologiesInc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Array that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Array TechnologiesInc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Array TechnologiesInc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Array TechnologiesInc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Array TechnologiesInc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Array TechnologiesInc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Array TechnologiesInc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Array TechnologiesInc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.