Assa Abloy Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

ASAZY Stock  USD 14.56  0.19  1.29%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Assa Abloy AB on the next trading day is expected to be 14.56 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.14  and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.49. Assa Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Assa Abloy stock prices and determine the direction of Assa Abloy AB's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Assa Abloy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Assa Abloy to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Assa Abloy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Assa Abloy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Assa Abloy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Assa Abloy simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Assa Abloy AB are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Assa Abloy AB prices get older.

Assa Abloy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Assa Abloy AB on the next trading day is expected to be 14.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Assa Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Assa Abloy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Assa Abloy Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Assa AbloyAssa Abloy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Assa Abloy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Assa Abloy's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Assa Abloy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.20 and 15.93, respectively. We have considered Assa Abloy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.56
14.56
Expected Value
15.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Assa Abloy pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Assa Abloy pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.7669
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0036
MADMean absolute deviation0.1392
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors8.4903
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Assa Abloy AB forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Assa Abloy observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Assa Abloy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Assa Abloy AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Assa Abloy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.4014.7516.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.0914.4415.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.6014.7314.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Assa Abloy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Assa Abloy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Assa Abloy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Assa Abloy AB.

Other Forecasting Options for Assa Abloy

For every potential investor in Assa, whether a beginner or expert, Assa Abloy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Assa Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Assa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Assa Abloy's price trends.

Assa Abloy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Assa Abloy pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Assa Abloy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Assa Abloy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Assa Abloy AB Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Assa Abloy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Assa Abloy's current price.

Assa Abloy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Assa Abloy pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Assa Abloy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Assa Abloy pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Assa Abloy AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Assa Abloy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Assa Abloy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Assa Abloy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting assa pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Assa Abloy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Assa Abloy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Assa Abloy options trading.

Pair Trading with Assa Abloy

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Assa Abloy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Assa Abloy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Assa Pink Sheet

  0.68ASAZF ASSA ABLOY ABPairCorr

Moving against Assa Pink Sheet

  0.75GSTX Graphene Solar TechnPairCorr
  0.75IRNRF Iron Road LimitedPairCorr
  0.43IMHC Imperalis Holding CorpPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Assa Abloy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Assa Abloy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Assa Abloy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Assa Abloy AB to buy it.
The correlation of Assa Abloy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Assa Abloy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Assa Abloy AB moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Assa Abloy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Assa Abloy to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Assa Abloy AB information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Assa Abloy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Assa Pink Sheet analysis

When running Assa Abloy's price analysis, check to measure Assa Abloy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Assa Abloy is operating at the current time. Most of Assa Abloy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Assa Abloy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Assa Abloy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Assa Abloy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Assa Abloy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Assa Abloy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Assa Abloy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.