Avino Silver Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ASM
 Stock
  

USD 0.56  0.02  3.45%   

Avino Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Avino Silver historical stock prices and determine the direction of Avino Silver Gold's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Avino Silver historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Avino Silver naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Avino Silver Gold systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Avino Silver fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avino Silver to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Asset Turnover is expected to hike to 0.19 this year. Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to hike to about 19.8 M this year, although the value of Weighted Average Shares will most likely fall to nearly 81.9 M.
Most investors in Avino Silver cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Avino Silver's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Avino Silver's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Avino Silver is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Avino Silver Gold value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Avino Silver Gold Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Avino Silver's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Avino. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Avino can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Avino Silver Gold. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Avino Silver's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Avino Silver's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Avino Silver's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Avino Silver.

Avino Silver Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Avino Silver Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 0.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.022125, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00076581, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.35. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avino Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avino Silver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Avino Silver Stock Forecast Pattern

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Avino Silver Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Avino Silver's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avino Silver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0056 and 3.94, respectively. We have considered Avino Silver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.56
0.0056
Downside
0.57
Expected Value
3.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avino Silver stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avino Silver stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.9359
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0221
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0294
SAESum of the absolute errors1.3496
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Avino Silver Gold. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Avino Silver. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Avino Silver

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avino Silver Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avino Silver's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Avino Silver in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.030.573.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.040.854.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.510.730.95
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
1.251.682.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Avino Silver. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Avino Silver's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Avino Silver's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Avino Silver Gold.

Other Forecasting Options for Avino Silver

For every potential investor in Avino, whether a beginner or expert, Avino Silver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avino Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avino. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avino Silver's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Avino Silver stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Avino Silver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avino Silver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Avino Silver Gold Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Avino Silver's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Avino Silver's current price.

Avino Silver Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avino Silver stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avino Silver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avino Silver stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Avino Silver Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Avino Silver Risk Indicators

The analysis of Avino Silver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avino Silver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Avino Silver stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Avino Silver without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Avino Silver

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Avino Silver position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Avino Silver will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Avino Silver Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Avino Silver could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Avino Silver when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Avino Silver - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Avino Silver Gold to buy it.
The correlation of Avino Silver is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Avino Silver moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Avino Silver Gold moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Avino Silver can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avino Silver to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Avino Silver Gold information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Avino Silver's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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When running Avino Silver Gold price analysis, check to measure Avino Silver's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avino Silver is operating at the current time. Most of Avino Silver's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avino Silver's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avino Silver's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avino Silver to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Avino Silver's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avino Silver. If investors know Avino will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avino Silver listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
70 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
380.03
Return On Assets
0.0247
Return On Equity
0.0048
The market value of Avino Silver Gold is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avino that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avino Silver's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avino Silver's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avino Silver's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avino Silver's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avino Silver's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Avino Silver value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avino Silver's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.