ASM Pacific Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

ASMVF Stock  USD 11.00  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM Pacific Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 11.58 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.29  and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.49. ASM Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ASM Pacific stock prices and determine the direction of ASM Pacific Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ASM Pacific's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASM Pacific to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in ASM Pacific cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ASM Pacific's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ASM Pacific's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for ASM Pacific is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ASM Pacific Technology value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ASM Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM Pacific Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 11.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASM Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASM Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ASM Pacific Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest ASM PacificASM Pacific Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ASM Pacific Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ASM Pacific's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASM Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.82 and 14.34, respectively. We have considered ASM Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.00
11.58
Expected Value
14.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASM Pacific pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASM Pacific pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0912
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2868
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0278
SAESum of the absolute errors17.4948
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ASM Pacific Technology. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ASM Pacific. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ASM Pacific

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASM Pacific Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASM Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.2411.0013.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.8310.5913.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.0011.0011.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ASM Pacific. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ASM Pacific's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ASM Pacific's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ASM Pacific Technology.

Other Forecasting Options for ASM Pacific

For every potential investor in ASM, whether a beginner or expert, ASM Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASM Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASM Pacific's price trends.

ASM Pacific Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASM Pacific pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASM Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASM Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ASM Pacific Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ASM Pacific's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ASM Pacific's current price.

ASM Pacific Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASM Pacific pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASM Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASM Pacific pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify ASM Pacific Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ASM Pacific Risk Indicators

The analysis of ASM Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASM Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asm pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with ASM Pacific

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ASM Pacific position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ASM Pacific will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with ASM Pink Sheet

  0.61ASML ASML Holding NV Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.61ASMLF ASML Holding NVPairCorr
  0.7AMAT Applied Materials Financial Report 16th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.65LRCX Lam Research Corp Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.65KLAC KLA-Tencor Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ASM Pacific could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ASM Pacific when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ASM Pacific - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ASM Pacific Technology to buy it.
The correlation of ASM Pacific is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ASM Pacific moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ASM Pacific Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ASM Pacific can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASM Pacific to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

Complementary Tools for ASM Pink Sheet analysis

When running ASM Pacific's price analysis, check to measure ASM Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ASM Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of ASM Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ASM Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ASM Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ASM Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
USA ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA
ETF Categories
List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Commodity Channel
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Please note, there is a significant difference between ASM Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ASM Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ASM Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.