Asm Pacific OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

ASMVF -  USA Stock  

USD 11.17  0.83  6.92%

ASMVF OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Asm Pacific historical stock prices and determine the direction of Asm Pacific Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Asm Pacific historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Asm Pacific to cross-verify your projections.

ASMVF O TC Stock Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Asm Pacific cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Asm Pacific's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Asm Pacific's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Asm Pacific simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Asm Pacific Technology are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Asm Pacific Technology prices get older.

Asm Pacific Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Asm Pacific Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 11.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.049667, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.98. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASMVF OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Asm Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Asm Pacific OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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Asm Pacific Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Asm Pacific's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Asm Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.06 and 13.28, respectively. We have considered Asm Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.17
24th of October 2021
11.17
Expected Value
13.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Asm Pacific otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Asm Pacific otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.3101
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0063
MADMean absolute deviation0.0497
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0041
SAESum of the absolute errors2.98
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Asm Pacific Technology forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Asm Pacific observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Asm Pacific

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asm Pacific Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Asm Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Asm Pacific in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.0611.1713.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.639.7411.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Asm Pacific. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Asm Pacific's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Asm Pacific's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Asm Pacific Technology.

Other Forecasting Options for Asm Pacific

For every potential investor in ASMVF, whether a beginner or expert, Asm Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASMVF OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASMVF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Asm Pacific's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Asm Pacific otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Asm Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Asm Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Asm Pacific Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Asm Pacific's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Asm Pacific's current price.

Asm Pacific Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Asm Pacific otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Asm Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Asm Pacific otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Asm Pacific Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Asm Pacific Risk Indicators

The analysis of Asm Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Asm Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Asm Pacific stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Asm Pacific without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Asm Pacific

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Asm Pacific position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Asm Pacific will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Asm Pacific Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Asm Pacific and Asml Holdings NY. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Asm Pacific to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Asm Pacific Technology information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Asm Pacific's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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The market value of Asm Pacific Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ASMVF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Asm Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Asm Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Asm Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Asm Pacific Technology underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Asm Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Asm Pacific value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Asm Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.