ASM International Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

ASMXF Stock  USD 625.00  1.00  0.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 597.91 with a mean absolute deviation of  12.28  and the sum of the absolute errors of 761.40. ASM Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ASM International stock prices and determine the direction of ASM International NV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ASM International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASM International to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in ASM International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ASM International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ASM International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for ASM International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ASM International NV value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ASM International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 597.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.28, mean absolute percentage error of 273.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 761.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASM Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASM International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ASM International Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest ASM InternationalASM International Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ASM International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ASM International's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASM International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 594.59 and 601.23, respectively. We have considered ASM International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
625.00
594.59
Downside
597.91
Expected Value
601.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASM International pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASM International pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.5606
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation12.2807
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0217
SAESum of the absolute errors761.4018
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ASM International NV. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ASM International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ASM International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASM International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASM International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
621.68625.00628.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
493.10496.42687.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
623.42624.40625.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ASM International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ASM International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ASM International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ASM International.

Other Forecasting Options for ASM International

For every potential investor in ASM, whether a beginner or expert, ASM International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASM Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASM International's price trends.

ASM International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASM International pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASM International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASM International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ASM International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ASM International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ASM International's current price.

ASM International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASM International pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASM International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASM International pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify ASM International NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ASM International Risk Indicators

The analysis of ASM International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASM International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asm pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with ASM International

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ASM International position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ASM International will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with ASM Pink Sheet

  0.93ASML ASML Holding NV Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.93ASMLF ASML Holding NVPairCorr
  0.87AMAT Applied Materials Financial Report 16th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.88LRCX Lam Research Corp Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.85KLAC KLA-Tencor Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ASM International could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ASM International when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ASM International - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ASM International NV to buy it.
The correlation of ASM International is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ASM International moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ASM International moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ASM International can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASM International to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running ASM International's price analysis, check to measure ASM International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ASM International is operating at the current time. Most of ASM International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ASM International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ASM International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ASM International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between ASM International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ASM International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ASM International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.