Ascendis Pharma Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

ASND Stock  USD 149.39  0.95  0.64%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ascendis Pharma AS on the next trading day is expected to be 148.91 with a mean absolute deviation of  2.82  and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.32. Ascendis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ascendis Pharma stock prices and determine the direction of Ascendis Pharma AS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ascendis Pharma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Ascendis Pharma's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ascendis Pharma's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ascendis Pharma fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascendis Pharma to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Ascendis Pharma's Payables Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 3.91, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 3.86. . As of March 28, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 39.2 M. The current year's Net Loss is expected to grow to about (498.6 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Ascendis Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ascendis Pharma's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ascendis Pharma's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ascendis Pharma stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ascendis Pharma's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ascendis Pharma's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ascendis Pharma is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ascendis. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Ascendis Pharma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ascendis Pharma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ascendis Pharma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Ascendis Pharma is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Ascendis Pharma Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ascendis Pharma AS on the next trading day is expected to be 148.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.82, mean absolute percentage error of 14.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ascendis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ascendis Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ascendis Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ascendis PharmaAscendis Pharma Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ascendis Pharma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ascendis Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ascendis Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 146.45 and 151.38, respectively. We have considered Ascendis Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
149.39
146.45
Downside
148.91
Expected Value
151.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ascendis Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ascendis Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1363
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.6169
MADMean absolute deviation2.8191
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0196
SAESum of the absolute errors166.325
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Ascendis Pharma AS price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Ascendis Pharma. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Ascendis Pharma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ascendis Pharma AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ascendis Pharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
147.91150.38152.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.8861.35164.33
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.0075-0.005-0.0025
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ascendis Pharma. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ascendis Pharma's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ascendis Pharma's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ascendis Pharma AS.

Other Forecasting Options for Ascendis Pharma

For every potential investor in Ascendis, whether a beginner or expert, Ascendis Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ascendis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ascendis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ascendis Pharma's price trends.

Ascendis Pharma Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ascendis Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ascendis Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ascendis Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ascendis Pharma AS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ascendis Pharma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ascendis Pharma's current price.

Ascendis Pharma Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ascendis Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ascendis Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ascendis Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ascendis Pharma AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ascendis Pharma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ascendis Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ascendis Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ascendis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Ascendis Pharma

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ascendis Pharma position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ascendis Pharma will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Ascendis Stock

  0.88EQ Equillium Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Ascendis Stock

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  0.74MEIP MEI Pharma Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.73CALT Calliditas Therapeutics Financial Report 21st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.71DBVT DBV Technologies Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.69MGTX MeiraGTx Holdings PLC Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ascendis Pharma could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ascendis Pharma when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ascendis Pharma - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ascendis Pharma AS to buy it.
The correlation of Ascendis Pharma is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ascendis Pharma moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ascendis Pharma AS moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ascendis Pharma can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Ascendis Pharma AS is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ascendis Pharma's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ascendis Pharma's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ascendis Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascendis Pharma to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for Ascendis Stock analysis

When running Ascendis Pharma's price analysis, check to measure Ascendis Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ascendis Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of Ascendis Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ascendis Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ascendis Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ascendis Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ascendis Pharma's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ascendis Pharma. If investors know Ascendis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ascendis Pharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(9.28)
Revenue Per Share
4.739
Quarterly Revenue Growth
5.014
Return On Assets
(0.30)
Return On Equity
(8.18)
The market value of Ascendis Pharma AS is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ascendis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ascendis Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ascendis Pharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ascendis Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ascendis Pharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ascendis Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ascendis Pharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ascendis Pharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.