Academy Sports Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASO Stock | USD 57.16 0.68 1.20% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Academy Sports OutdoorsInc on the next trading day is expected to be 57.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.07. Academy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Academy Sports stock prices and determine the direction of Academy Sports OutdoorsInc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Academy Sports' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Academy Sports' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Academy Sports' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Academy Sports fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Academy Sports to cross-verify your projections. Academy |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Academy Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Academy Sports' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Academy Sports' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Academy Sports stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Academy Sports' open interest, investors have to compare it to Academy Sports' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Academy Sports is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Academy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Academy Sports cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Academy Sports' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Academy Sports' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Academy Sports simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Academy Sports OutdoorsInc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Academy Sports Outdo prices get older. Academy Sports Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Academy Sports OutdoorsInc on the next trading day is expected to be 57.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 2.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Academy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Academy Sports' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Academy Sports Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Academy Sports | Academy Sports Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Academy Sports Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Academy Sports' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Academy Sports' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.93 and 59.39, respectively. We have considered Academy Sports' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Academy Sports stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Academy Sports stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.159 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1272 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1178 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 67.07 |
Predictive Modules for Academy Sports
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Academy Sports Outdo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Academy Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Academy Sports
For every potential investor in Academy, whether a beginner or expert, Academy Sports' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Academy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Academy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Academy Sports' price trends.Academy Sports Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Academy Sports stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Academy Sports could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Academy Sports by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Academy Sports Outdo Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Academy Sports' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Academy Sports' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Academy Sports Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Academy Sports stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Academy Sports shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Academy Sports stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Academy Sports OutdoorsInc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 43973.92 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4198 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 56.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 56.97 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.62 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.68 |
Academy Sports Risk Indicators
The analysis of Academy Sports' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Academy Sports' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting academy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Variance | 5.18 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Academy Sports Investors Sentiment
The influence of Academy Sports' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Academy. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Academy Sports' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Academy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Academy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Academy Sports OutdoorsInc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Academy Sports' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Academy Sports' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Academy Sports' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Academy Sports.
Academy Sports Implied Volatility | 84.62 |
Academy Sports' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Academy Sports OutdoorsInc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Academy Sports' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Academy Sports stock will not fluctuate a lot when Academy Sports' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Academy Sports in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Academy Sports' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Academy Sports options trading.
Pair Trading with Academy Sports
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Academy Sports position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Academy Sports will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Academy Stock
| 0.7 | HD | Home Depot Financial Report 21st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Academy Sports could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Academy Sports when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Academy Sports - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Academy Sports OutdoorsInc to buy it.
The correlation of Academy Sports is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Academy Sports moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Academy Sports Outdo moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Academy Sports can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Academy Sports to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Complementary Tools for Academy Stock analysis
When running Academy Sports' price analysis, check to measure Academy Sports' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Academy Sports is operating at the current time. Most of Academy Sports' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Academy Sports' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Academy Sports' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Academy Sports to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Academy Sports' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Academy Sports. If investors know Academy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Academy Sports listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.118 | Dividend Share 0.38 | Earnings Share 6.7 | Revenue Per Share 81.7 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.028 |
The market value of Academy Sports Outdo is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Academy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Academy Sports' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Academy Sports' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Academy Sports' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Academy Sports' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Academy Sports' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Academy Sports is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Academy Sports' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.