Alger Spectra Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

ASPCX -  USA Fund  

USD 28.91  0.00  0.00%

Alger Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alger Spectra historical stock prices and determine the direction of Alger Spectra's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alger Spectra historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alger Spectra to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in Alger Spectra cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alger Spectra's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alger Spectra's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Alger Spectra is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alger Spectra value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alger Spectra Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alger Spectra on the next trading day is expected to be 28.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.07. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alger Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alger Spectra's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alger Spectra Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Alger Spectra Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alger Spectra's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alger Spectra's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.64 and 29.45, respectively. We have considered Alger Spectra's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.91
24th of September 2021
28.54
Expected Value
29.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alger Spectra mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alger Spectra mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9632
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2634
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0093
SAESum of the absolute errors16.0675
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alger Spectra. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alger Spectra. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alger Spectra

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alger Spectra. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alger Spectra's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alger Spectra in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
28.0128.9129.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
25.6226.5231.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
28.9029.5530.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alger Spectra. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alger Spectra's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alger Spectra's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alger Spectra.

Other Forecasting Options for Alger Spectra

For every potential investor in Alger, whether a beginner or expert, Alger Spectra's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alger Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alger. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alger Spectra's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alger Spectra mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alger Spectra could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alger Spectra by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Alger Spectra Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alger Spectra's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alger Spectra's current price.

Alger Spectra Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alger Spectra's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alger Spectra's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Alger Spectra stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Alger Spectra Investors Sentiment

The influence of Alger Spectra's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Alger. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - ASPCX

Alger Spectra Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in Alger Spectra. What is your sentiment towards investing in Alger Spectra? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Alger Spectra

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alger Spectra position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alger Spectra will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Alger Spectra Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alger Spectra and Amcap Fund -. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alger Spectra to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alger Spectra information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alger Spectra's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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When running Alger Spectra price analysis, check to measure Alger Spectra's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alger Spectra is operating at the current time. Most of Alger Spectra's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alger Spectra's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alger Spectra's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alger Spectra to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Alger Spectra's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alger Spectra value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alger Spectra's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.