Astor Sector Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

ASPGX -  USA Fund  

USD 18.36  0.000001  0.00%

Astor Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Astor Sector historical stock prices and determine the direction of Astor Sector Allocation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Astor Sector historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astor Sector to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in Astor Sector cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Astor Sector's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Astor Sector's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Astor Sector is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Astor Sector Allocation value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Astor Sector Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Astor Sector Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 18.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.011614, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.81. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astor Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astor Sector's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Astor Sector Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Astor Sector Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Astor Sector's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Astor Sector's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.73 and 18.74, respectively. We have considered Astor Sector's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21st of September 2021
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astor Sector mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astor Sector mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.655
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0789
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0043
SAESum of the absolute errors4.8128
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Astor Sector Allocation. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Astor Sector. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Astor Sector

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astor Sector Allocation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astor Sector's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Astor Sector in the context of predictive analytics.
LowEstimated ValueHigh
LowReal ValueHigh
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Astor Sector. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Astor Sector's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Astor Sector's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Astor Sector Allocation.

Other Forecasting Options for Astor Sector

For every potential investor in Astor, whether a beginner or expert, Astor Sector's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Astor Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Astor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Astor Sector's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astor Sector mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astor Sector could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astor Sector by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Astor Sector Allocation Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Astor Sector's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Astor Sector's current price.

Astor Sector Risk Indicators

The analysis of Astor Sector's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astor Sector's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Astor Sector stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Astor Sector Investors Sentiment

The influence of Astor Sector's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Astor. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - ASPGX

Astor Sector Allocation Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in Astor Sector Allocation. What is your sentiment towards investing in Astor Sector Allocation? Are you bullish or bearish?
50% Bullish
50% Bearish

Pair Trading with Astor Sector

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Astor Sector position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Astor Sector will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Astor Sector Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Astor Sector and American Beacon Ahl. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astor Sector to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Astor Sector Allocation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Astor Sector's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for Astor Mutual Fund analysis

When running Astor Sector Allocation price analysis, check to measure Astor Sector's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astor Sector is operating at the current time. Most of Astor Sector's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astor Sector's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astor Sector's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astor Sector to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Astor Sector's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Astor Sector value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astor Sector's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.