Aspen Aerogels Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

ASPN Stock  USD 16.14  0.31  1.96%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Aspen Aerogels on the next trading day is expected to be 15.71 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.01  and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.76. Aspen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aspen Aerogels stock prices and determine the direction of Aspen Aerogels's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aspen Aerogels' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Aspen Aerogels' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aspen Aerogels' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aspen Aerogels fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Aerogels to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Aerogels guide.
  
At this time, Aspen Aerogels' Fixed Asset Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 5.49, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.41. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 72.9 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (70.7 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Aspen Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aspen Aerogels' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aspen Aerogels' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aspen Aerogels stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aspen Aerogels' open interest, investors have to compare it to Aspen Aerogels' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aspen Aerogels is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aspen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Aspen Aerogels cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aspen Aerogels' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aspen Aerogels' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Aspen Aerogels is based on an artificially constructed time series of Aspen Aerogels daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Aspen Aerogels 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Aspen Aerogels on the next trading day is expected to be 15.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 2.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aspen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aspen Aerogels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aspen Aerogels Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aspen AerogelsAspen Aerogels Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aspen Aerogels Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aspen Aerogels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aspen Aerogels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.11 and 20.31, respectively. We have considered Aspen Aerogels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.14
15.71
Expected Value
20.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aspen Aerogels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aspen Aerogels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria104.232
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1134
MADMean absolute deviation1.0143
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0684
SAESum of the absolute errors53.76
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Aspen Aerogels 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Aspen Aerogels

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aspen Aerogels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aspen Aerogels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.5616.1620.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.3216.9221.52
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.7416.0416.33
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
19.1121.0023.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aspen Aerogels. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aspen Aerogels' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aspen Aerogels' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Aspen Aerogels.

Other Forecasting Options for Aspen Aerogels

For every potential investor in Aspen, whether a beginner or expert, Aspen Aerogels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aspen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aspen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aspen Aerogels' price trends.

Aspen Aerogels Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aspen Aerogels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aspen Aerogels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Aerogels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aspen Aerogels Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aspen Aerogels' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aspen Aerogels' current price.

Aspen Aerogels Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aspen Aerogels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aspen Aerogels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aspen Aerogels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aspen Aerogels entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aspen Aerogels Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aspen Aerogels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aspen Aerogels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aspen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Aspen Aerogels

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aspen Aerogels position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aspen Aerogels will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aspen Aerogels could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aspen Aerogels when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aspen Aerogels - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aspen Aerogels to buy it.
The correlation of Aspen Aerogels is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aspen Aerogels moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aspen Aerogels moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aspen Aerogels can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Aspen Aerogels offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Aspen Aerogels' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Aspen Aerogels Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Aspen Aerogels Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Aerogels to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Aerogels guide.
You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

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Is Aspen Aerogels' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Aerogels. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Aerogels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.66)
Revenue Per Share
3.438
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.413
Return On Assets
(0.05)
Return On Equity
(0.1)
The market value of Aspen Aerogels is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Aerogels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Aerogels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Aerogels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Aerogels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Aerogels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Aerogels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Aerogels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.