Astra Space Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ASTR Stock  USD 0.68  0.04  6.25%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astra Space on the next trading day is expected to be 0.69 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.10  and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.07. Astra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Astra Space stock prices and determine the direction of Astra Space's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Astra Space's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Astra Space's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Astra Space's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Astra Space fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astra Space to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Astra Stock, please use our How to Invest in Astra Space guide.
  
As of 03/29/2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to 4.74. In addition to that, Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 18.63. As of 03/29/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 15.1 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to drop to about (388.8 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Astra Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Astra Space's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Astra Space's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Astra Space stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Astra Space's open interest, investors have to compare it to Astra Space's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Astra Space is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Astra. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Astra Space cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Astra Space's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Astra Space's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Astra Space works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Astra Space Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astra Space on the next trading day is expected to be 0.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astra Space's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Astra Space Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Astra SpaceAstra Space Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Astra Space Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Astra Space's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Astra Space's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 9.84, respectively. We have considered Astra Space's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.68
0.69
Expected Value
9.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astra Space stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astra Space stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0139
MADMean absolute deviation0.1011
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0821
SAESum of the absolute errors6.0682
When Astra Space prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Astra Space trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Astra Space observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Astra Space

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra Space. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra Space's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.649.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.214.2513.33
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.6515.0016.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Astra Space. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Astra Space's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Astra Space's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Astra Space.

Other Forecasting Options for Astra Space

For every potential investor in Astra, whether a beginner or expert, Astra Space's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Astra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Astra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Astra Space's price trends.

Astra Space Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astra Space stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astra Space could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astra Space by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Astra Space Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Astra Space's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Astra Space's current price.

Astra Space Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Astra Space stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Astra Space shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Astra Space stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Astra Space entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Astra Space Risk Indicators

The analysis of Astra Space's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astra Space's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting astra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Astra Space

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Astra Space position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Astra Space will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Astra Stock

  0.74AZ A2Z Smart TechnologiesPairCorr

Moving against Astra Stock

  0.85ERJ Embraer SA ADR Sell-off TrendPairCorr
  0.75CW Curtiss-Wright Financial Report 1st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.74DRS Leonardo DRS Common Financial Report 1st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.72HWM Howmet AerospaceInc Financial Report 7th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.68HII Huntington Ingalls Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Astra Space could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Astra Space when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Astra Space - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Astra Space to buy it.
The correlation of Astra Space is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Astra Space moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Astra Space moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Astra Space can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Astra Space is a strong investment it is important to analyze Astra Space's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Astra Space's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Astra Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astra Space to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Astra Stock, please use our How to Invest in Astra Space guide.
You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for Astra Stock analysis

When running Astra Space's price analysis, check to measure Astra Space's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astra Space is operating at the current time. Most of Astra Space's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astra Space's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astra Space's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astra Space to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
ETF Categories
List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Odds Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Stocks Directory
Find actively traded stocks across global markets
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Is Astra Space's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astra Space. If investors know Astra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astra Space listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(7.35)
Revenue Per Share
0.053
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.91)
Return On Assets
(0.68)
Return On Equity
(2.18)
The market value of Astra Space is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astra Space's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astra Space's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astra Space's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astra Space's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astra Space's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Astra Space is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astra Space's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.