Athersys Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Athersys works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Athersys Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Athersys on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000014, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.15.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Athersys pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Athersys pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Athersys prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Athersys trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Athersys observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Athersys

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Athersys. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 0.00 0.01 11.23 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 0.00 0.01 11.23 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 0.01 0.01 0.01 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Athersys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Athersys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Athersys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Athersys.

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Pair Trading with Athersys

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Athersys position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Athersys will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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