ATI Physical Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ATIP Stock  USD 5.58  0.22  3.79%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ATI Physical Therapy on the next trading day is expected to be 5.51 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.17  and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.15. ATI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ATI Physical stock prices and determine the direction of ATI Physical Therapy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ATI Physical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although ATI Physical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ATI Physical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ATI Physical fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ATI Physical to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, ATI Physical's Payables Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/29/2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 2.71, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 30.20. . As of 03/29/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 3.7 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (421 M).
Most investors in ATI Physical cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ATI Physical's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ATI Physical's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for ATI Physical works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

ATI Physical Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ATI Physical Therapy on the next trading day is expected to be 5.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ATI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ATI Physical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ATI Physical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ATI PhysicalATI Physical Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ATI Physical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ATI Physical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ATI Physical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.31 and 8.70, respectively. We have considered ATI Physical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.58
5.51
Expected Value
8.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ATI Physical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ATI Physical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0203
MADMean absolute deviation0.1691
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0258
SAESum of the absolute errors10.1458
When ATI Physical Therapy prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any ATI Physical Therapy trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ATI Physical observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for ATI Physical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ATI Physical Therapy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ATI Physical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.405.588.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.915.098.27
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.288.008.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ATI Physical. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ATI Physical's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ATI Physical's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ATI Physical Therapy.

Other Forecasting Options for ATI Physical

For every potential investor in ATI, whether a beginner or expert, ATI Physical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ATI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ATI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ATI Physical's price trends.

ATI Physical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ATI Physical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ATI Physical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ATI Physical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ATI Physical Therapy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ATI Physical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ATI Physical's current price.

ATI Physical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ATI Physical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ATI Physical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ATI Physical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ATI Physical Therapy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ATI Physical Risk Indicators

The analysis of ATI Physical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ATI Physical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ati stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ATI Physical in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ATI Physical's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ATI Physical options trading.

Pair Trading with ATI Physical

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ATI Physical position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ATI Physical will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against ATI Stock

  0.43INSP Inspire Medical Systems Financial Report 7th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ATI Physical could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ATI Physical when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ATI Physical - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ATI Physical Therapy to buy it.
The correlation of ATI Physical is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ATI Physical moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ATI Physical Therapy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ATI Physical can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether ATI Physical Therapy is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if ATI Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Ati Physical Therapy Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Ati Physical Therapy Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ATI Physical to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

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When running ATI Physical's price analysis, check to measure ATI Physical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ATI Physical is operating at the current time. Most of ATI Physical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ATI Physical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ATI Physical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ATI Physical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ATI Physical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ATI Physical. If investors know ATI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ATI Physical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.895
Earnings Share
(31.93)
Revenue Per Share
166.408
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.135
Return On Assets
(0.02)
The market value of ATI Physical Therapy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ATI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ATI Physical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ATI Physical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ATI Physical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ATI Physical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ATI Physical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ATI Physical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ATI Physical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.