Activision Blizzard Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ATVIDelisted Stock | USD 94.42 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Activision Blizzard on the next trading day is expected to be 94.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.62. Activision Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Activision Blizzard stock prices and determine the direction of Activision Blizzard's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Activision Blizzard's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real. Activision |
Most investors in Activision Blizzard cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Activision Blizzard's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Activision Blizzard's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Activision Blizzard is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. Activision Blizzard Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Activision Blizzard on the next trading day is expected to be 94.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Activision Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Activision Blizzard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Activision Blizzard Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Activision Blizzard | Activision Blizzard Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Activision Blizzard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Activision Blizzard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3851 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0781 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2308 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0025 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.615 |
Predictive Modules for Activision Blizzard
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Activision Blizzard. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Activision Blizzard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Activision Blizzard Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Activision Blizzard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Activision Blizzard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Activision Blizzard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Activision Blizzard Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Activision Blizzard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Activision Blizzard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Activision Blizzard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Activision Blizzard entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Activision Blizzard Risk Indicators
The analysis of Activision Blizzard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Activision Blizzard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting activision stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2904 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5559 | |||
| Variance | 0.309 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0846 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.04) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Activision Blizzard
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Activision Blizzard position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Activision Blizzard will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Activision Stock
| 0.84 | MCD | McDonalds Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.8 | BA | Boeing Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | JNJ | Johnson Johnson Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | PFE | Pfizer Inc Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | PME | Pingtan Marine Enterprise | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Activision Blizzard could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Activision Blizzard when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Activision Blizzard - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Activision Blizzard to buy it.
The correlation of Activision Blizzard is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Activision Blizzard moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Activision Blizzard moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Activision Blizzard can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Other Consideration for investing in Activision Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Activision Blizzard check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Activision Blizzard's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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