Gold79 Mines Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AUU Stock | CAD 0.03 0.01 16.67% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gold79 Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.14. Gold79 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gold79 Mines stock prices and determine the direction of Gold79 Mines's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gold79 Mines' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Gold79 Mines' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Gold79 Mines' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Gold79 Mines fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gold79 Mines to cross-verify your projections. Gold79 |
Most investors in Gold79 Mines cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Gold79 Mines' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Gold79 Mines' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Gold79 Mines - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Gold79 Mines prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Gold79 Mines price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Gold79 Mines. Gold79 Mines Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gold79 Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000017, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gold79 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gold79 Mines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gold79 Mines Stock Forecast Pattern
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Gold79 Mines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gold79 Mines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gold79 Mines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0003 and 18.79, respectively. We have considered Gold79 Mines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gold79 Mines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gold79 Mines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0024 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0979 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.142 |
Predictive Modules for Gold79 Mines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gold79 Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gold79 Mines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Gold79 Mines
For every potential investor in Gold79, whether a beginner or expert, Gold79 Mines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gold79 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gold79. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gold79 Mines' price trends.Gold79 Mines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gold79 Mines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gold79 Mines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gold79 Mines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gold79 Mines Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gold79 Mines' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gold79 Mines' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gold79 Mines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gold79 Mines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gold79 Mines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gold79 Mines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gold79 Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.83 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.025 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.025 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
Gold79 Mines Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gold79 Mines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gold79 Mines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gold79 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 8.86 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 10.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 18.33 | |||
| Variance | 335.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1157.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 116.42 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (50.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Gold79 Mines
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Gold79 Mines position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Gold79 Mines will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Gold79 Mines could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Gold79 Mines when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Gold79 Mines - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Gold79 Mines to buy it.
The correlation of Gold79 Mines is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Gold79 Mines moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Gold79 Mines moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Gold79 Mines can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gold79 Mines to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Gold79 Stock analysis
When running Gold79 Mines' price analysis, check to measure Gold79 Mines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gold79 Mines is operating at the current time. Most of Gold79 Mines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gold79 Mines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gold79 Mines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gold79 Mines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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